Where is Iran heading in 2023?

With our invited experts, Erzsébet N. Rózsa (Professor, University of Public Service), Miklós Sárközy (Associate Professor, Károli Gáspár University of the Reformed Church) and Máté Szalai (Research Fellow, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) we discussed the current situation, problems, and prospects of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The actuality of our topic stemmed from the tense domestic political situation in Iran and the changing global political landscape around the country. The first half of the discussion covered the background, characteristics, and possible long-term impacts of the latest nationwide protests. In the second half of the event we talked about the Iranian drones’ role in the Russian-Ukrainian war and its global implications, as well as the current state of the Iranian nuclear issue and the options of the international community for dealing with it.

The reasons behind the recent nationwide protests were first discussed in the context of the profound long-term social transformation taking place in Iran, including demographic changes and rapid urbanisation, which have led to two opposing views of society in case of the conservative elite of the system and a large segments of the Iranian society. The experts explained how the international sanctions, the failure of the nuclear deal and the Covid epidemic have contributed to the current deep socio-economic crisis in Iran and the general social frustration that has also been manifested in the wake of the recent protests. During the recent wave of protests, the systemic oppression of women, the brutality of the authorities and the dire situation of ethno-religious minorities were the main grievances that protesters expressed their discontent with. Although, the protests have now mostly died down, the process of transformation that they potentially triggered is far from complete. Even if the fall of the Islamic Republic is not expected, it can be assumed that a modest transformation of the regime towards its own survival could take place in the future.

With regard to the deployment of Iranian drones in the Ukrainian theatre of operations, experts have pointed out that Iran’s “Look East” policy has a long history. Under the current sanctions regime, Iran is pursuing an open policy towards the East, with the deepening of economic and political relations with Russia and China at its core. For the Iranian military industry, which has been under pressure from sanctions for decades, drone sales are a very good business and a source of revenue. In addition, Ukraine is also seen by Iranian military strategists as a testing ground for some of the country’s military products far from their borders. The political price of the drone sales to the Russians is tremendous, including the further isolation of Iran in world politics and the complete impossibility of restoring the nuclear deal (JCPOA). With the nuclear deal off the agenda, maintaining nuclear ambiguity may become a realistic option for Iran. In the medium and long term, however, the latter could entail the risk of nuclear proliferation and further destabilisation of the region.

Photos by Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (IFAT)