Tensions in the Andes – Analysis of the Elections in Ecuador and Peru
On April 26, 2021, the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade held an online roundtable discussion on the presidential elections in Ecuador and Peru. Besides the temporal and geographical proximity of the two events, the joint, contrastive analysis was also justified by the fact that the political processes in both countries were deeply influenced by the coronavirus and the economic crisis caused by the restrictions.
The conversation took advantage of the opportunities offered by the online format, and the invited three researchers joined from three different countries. Belén Espinel, assistant professor at the University of the Americas in Ecuador, called from Quito, while Farid Kahhat, professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru joined from Lima, and Mónika Szente-Varga, associate professor at the National Civil Service University, joined the online roundtable discussion from Budapest. The discussion was moderated by Béla Soltész, senior research fellow on Latin American issues at the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Mónika Szente-Varga summarized the turning points in the political history of the two countries for the Hungarian public, from the 1990s to the present, focusing on the political legacy of Alberto Fujimori of Peru and Rafael Correa of Ecuador, as well as on the role of the two countries in political processes in the Latin American region. She also outlined the development of diplomatic, economic and cultural relations between Hungary and the two countries; from the second half of the century to the results of the policy of Opening to the South.
Belén Espinel analysed the political situation in Ecuador in the light of the outcome of the Ecuadorian presidential election, but also taking into account its antecedents, including the 2019 protests, the destruction caused by the coronavirus and the strengthening of the Indigenous movements. She stressed that the dynamics between the three strongest candidates made the processes difficult to predict and while centre-right Guillermo Lasso won the presidential election, he can only rely on a negligible number of MPs in the legislature, so he would in any case be forced to look for compromises.
Farid Kahhat outlined a similar picture in many ways, although at the time of the conversation, Peru was only past the first round of elections. (Later on, the outcome of the second round has supported Professor Kahhat’s prediction of an extremely close and polarised result.) He stressed that the weakness of the Peruvian party system and the almost inevitable corruption allegations against previous presidents were important factors of low voter turnout, but also the fact that the two options available in the second round are located at two endpoints of the political spectrum reduced the willingness of centrist voters to cast their votes.
Several questions arrived from the audience: Hungarian researchers, diplomats and university students also commented on the discussion. Roundtable participants agreed that the social and economic impacts of the coronavirus, the growing voter frustration, and in many cases the dynamics of growing Indigenous movements, brought instability into the political life of both countries that could only be mitigated by prudent governance based on broad consensus. It is doubtful that the new presidents elected will be able to do so.
The full recording can accessed at the link below or on our YouTube-Channel!