Security Policy Trends in Asia from Afghanistan to North Korea
On 18 October 2021, the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (IFAT) hosted a webinar entitled “Security Policy Trends in Asia from Afghanistan to North Korea”, which was moderated by Tamás Péter Baranyi, IFAT Deputy Director for Strategy. The participating experts were Péter Wagner, IFAT Senior Research Fellow, Tibor Mezei, IFAT Research Fellow and András Bartók, instructor at the Department for International Relations and Diplomacy, National Public Service University. The situation in Afghanistan, the Taiwan question, the North Korean nuclear program and China’s ambitions in the region were discussed at the webinar.
As regards Afghanistan, Péter Wagner stressed that the Unites States, though it gave up its plans for nation builiding, still follows closely the ongoing developments because it is a priority for the US to prevent the establishment of a terrorist base in the country as it happened in the 90’s. In response to a question if China was ready to move in and occupy the former US position, he explained that Beijing would proceed in a very cautious and pragmatic manner and would not aspire to fill in the power vacuum too hastily. It is true there are some rare earth metals unmined in Afghanistan, but he pointed out that there are a lot more in the Democratic Republic of Congo where Chines companies have already established their presence, therefore Beijing is not extremely motivated to make serious efforts in Afghanistan in this respect. He also emphasized that the country is threatened by the possibility of an economic collapse, which could lead to a humanitarian disaster, and that, in turn, might trigger a new migration wave with serious impact on Europe.
András Bartók stated in relation to Taiwan that despite the recent repeated display of Chinese forces in the Taiwan Straits it is not in the interest of Beijing to provoke a war. He opined that China’s primary ambition is not territorial expansion, but they are more concerned about Taiwan becoming an alternative for the current political model of the People’s Republic of China. A forced occupation of Taiwan, it should be noted, poses several risks, and the damage caused by the negative international consequences would be a lot more significant than the benefits gained.
Tibor Mezei claimed that North Korea wants to signal with the repeated ballistic missile tests that it has not stopped its nuclear program, just the contrary, it continuously develops its nuclear arsenal. He pointed out that it is quite difficult to obtain precise information on the DPRK’s nuclear capabilities, but it can be stated with considerable certainty that its medium-range ballistic missile are able to operate with nuclear warheads, while its intercontinental ballistic missile most probably cannot. It is alarming that Kim Jong-un keeps advancing his nuclear program, which means that sooner or later he will possess a formidable nuclear arsenal posing a global threat to the world.
For the full recording please click on the link below or visit our YouTube-channel!