US-Russia negotiations: a sign of a transformation of the world order?

The Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (IFAT) organised an online conference entitled “U.S.-Russian negotiations: a sign of the transformation of the world order?” on January 28, 2022. The event was opened by the thoughts of Mr. Tamás Péter Baranyi, deputy director of strategy at IFAT and moderator of the conference. The participants of the panel discussion were Mr. Péter Stepper, program manager and senior researcher of IFAT, and Mr. György Ilyash, researcher of IFAT. The conference focused on whether the European security architecture could be the basis of negotiations between major powers or not, and whether the US-Russia discussion could signal a change in nowadays world order.

Mr. Tamás Baranyi explained in his opening speech, that the appreciably increasing tensions in the Eastern European region can indeed be a cause for concern, but at the same time the above mentioned US-Russia negotiations also includes issues related to the current European security architecture and in wider terms the current world order.

Mr. György Ilyash presented the Russian point of view, outlined the country’s narrative of the conflict, an option for a solution similar to the acceptable Georgian case in 2008, and drew attention to the various international positions surrounding the negotiations: the fact that the problem is local according to Russia, and the results of the discussions will have an impact not only on the European security architecture as a whole, but also on the majority of the international system globally. The expert highlighted that during the negotiations the Russian side’s ultimate goal is to shift the balance of power and to restore the decision-making marked by the Russian-American compromise of 1945. Finally, as a factor influencing the negotiations, among others, the lack of an objective assessment of Russia, the significance of the myth of the country’s decline and, as a justification for this, the different treatment of the document on the reduction of military risks prepared by NATO-Russia in 2021 are the same.

Mr. Péter Stepper explained that for the Biden administration and the US as a whole, the discourse is clearly about defending the free world, democracy and helping Ukraine, but in narrower political circles the realist interests of the country may also arise in connection with the events. Based on Kissinger’s view, the main objective of the US may be to prevent the redefinition of legitimacy, but basically in regard to China.

According to researcher Mr. György Ilyash, the escalation of the event to a hot conflict cannot be completely ruled out. Furthermore, he highlighted that despite the lack of consistency between the country’s rhetoric and its activities, the aim is to avoid war. However, he stressed that in terms of Russia, the movements of troops had only induced the start of negotiations between themselves and the US.  Mr Stepper agreed, on the one hand, that local actors could take developments towards a hotter conflict, and on the other hand, it is in the interest of the great powers to reduce the level of escalation. In his opinion, this is a limited conflict that redefines the situation in eastern Ukraine, which, due to the different exposures of the countries, can clearly divide the views of NATO member states and Ukrainian state actors.

In answer to the audience’s question, Péter Stepper explained that NATO does not have the right to intervene at the moment, but at the same time the political environment can provide an opportunity for a limited response. At the same time, he spoke about the democratization narrative of non-democratic states that are stable for U.S. security in Europe, which should be paired with more clear communication. At the same time, the impact of the conflict was discussed in the relations of the middle powers specifically with Turkey and the ability of Russia to invade Ukraine.

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