The geopolitics of EU accession – Ukraine and beyond

On June 10, 2025, the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (HIIA) held a roundtable discussion titled, “The geopolitics of EU accession – Ukraine and beyond” . The panelists included Márton Ugrósdy, Deputy State Secretary in charge of the Office of the Prime Minister’s Political Director, Tamás Baranyi, Director for Strategy at HIIA and Ákos Mernyei, Senior Research Fellow at HIIA. The discussion was moderated by HIIA Senior Research Fellow Sándor Seremet.

Starting off the discussion, Tamás Baranyi explained that Ukraine is a so-called “swing state” located between the Eastern and Western spheres, and historically lies along a civilizational fault line. He also pointed out that when it comes to EU enlargement, the Western Balkans would be a much more “logical” target than Ukraine: from a geopolitical point of view, this region – unlike Ukraine – is a “hole” in the map of Europe. By admitting Ukraine on an exceptional basis, the EU would be contradicting its own rules on merit-based accession, thereby seriously damaging its credibility.

Ákos Mernyei highlighted the technical and legal aspects of the question. He pointed out that the preconditions for Ukraine’s accession to the EU cannot be objectively assessed at present, as there is insufficient data available on the country’s territory, population and economic capacity. Nevertheless, the EU wants to open all accession chapters at once, which would in fact build on each other. At the same time, not only Ukraine but also the EU’s institutional system is unprepared for an enlargement process of this magnitude and risk.

Márton Ugrósdy explained that Ukraine’s accession would significantly reshape the distribution of EU funds, as the redistribution of resources would mean that current beneficiary countries such as Hungary, Italy and Spain would receive less support. He also pointed out that EU leaders are overly focused on the narrative of Ukraine’s victory, while paying little attention to actual urgent threats such as illegal migration.