On 6 May 2022, the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (IFAT) held an online conference entitled “The prospects and significance of Finnish and Swedish accession to NATO”. During the discussion, Dr. Ildikó Annus (ELTE, Faculty of Humanities, Sweden expert), Krisztián Jójárt (Eötvös József Research Network, Strategic Defence Research Institute, Research Fellow), Dr. Péter Wagner (Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade, Senior Research Fellow) and Dr. Péter Stepper (Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade, Senior Research Fellow) discussed the realities, prospects and possible consequences of the accessions.
Dr. Ildikó Annus explained that the reason why both Sweden and Finland pursue a policy of neutrality despite the success of NATO is the historical interconnection, cultural history and “sister state” relationship between the two countries. Sweden’s inherently unintentional neutrality was significantly enhanced during the world wars. At the same time, Finland followed the example of its politico-military-historical partner, under the influence of centuries of subordination. He added that there is basically popular support for accession in both countries, but there are sensitive issues to address.
On the influence of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the Swedish-Finnish neutrality policy, Krisztián Jójárt said it was a watershed event. Previous assumptions – such as Swedish-Finnish neutrality – are being overturned: it is clear that the war, which could be called a “boundary war”, will start a process of bloc formation in which neutrality will have no place. He noted that the counterproductive nature of the war for the Russian side is illustrated by the fact that pro-Kremlin expert Vladimir Frolov, prior to 24 February, had described the Finnish neutrality model as a model for Ukraine to follow in order to advance agreements. On the Finnish-Swedish NATO accession, he added that Russia has neither the relevant capacity nor the intention to block the process. The reason is that the two countries are de facto considered part of NATO by the Russian point of view thanks to deep cooperation.
Dr. Wagner said that both the Swedish and Finnish armies – unlike those that joined the EU in 1999, which was essentially a political decision – are familiar with NATO’s war culture. Thanks to the continuous modernisation and cooperation with the international organisation over the past decades, the countries could join at any time in military terms. Nevertheless, he added, in the event of successful accessions, Article 5, nuclear capabilities and the presence of NATO troops on the territory of the two countries will be cardinal issues in the future.
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