On the 8th of December 2021 the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (IFAT) organised an online discussion with Ambassador Tadamichi Yamamoto, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan between 2016–2020. The discussion was introduced by Márton Ugrósdy, Director of IFAT, and moderated by Péter Wagner, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute.
Ambassador Yamamoto was of the opinion that while international efforts in Afghanistan since the 2001 intervention had some achievements, important lessons need to be drawn from their overall failure.
The Ambassador first highlighted the most important reasons behind the unexpectedly rapid fall of Ashraf Ghani’s administration. On the political side these included the lack of progress in Afghan-Afghan peace talks and the inability of Afghan security forces to maintain at least a stalemate in the meantime; the lack of unity on the anti-Taliban side in the wake of the 2014 post-election crisis; endemic poverty and the resulting lack of public trust.
On the military side the Afghan National Army fighting capabilities (especially in the case of special operations forces) was formidable, but the lack of planning and logistical abilities hindered their overall performance. In their conquest of the country, the Taliban decided to capture first Northern Afghanistan, a region that even prior to 2001 was outside of Taliban control. Afghan troops’ lack of confidence in their own abilities was also mentioned as a critical factor.
After a brief recall of the recent two years’ events, Ambassador Yamamoto provided his assessment of the entire 2001-2021 period. He acknowledged important achievements in certain areas. Women’s rights improved considerably, with women present on many levels of government and civil society, and open public discourse about the issue (although slower actual implementation) even in more conservative areas. Afghan media was one of the freest in South Asia, second only to India.
These achievements, however, were undermined by the overall failure of building a government with strong legitimacy. Ambassador Yamamoto reminded that the initial objectives of the UN sanctioned international intervention were to ensure that the country never again becomes a hotbed for terrorism and to stabilise the countries for this purpose. The political framework implemented in Afghanistan, based on the Western model of strong central power and one-person-one-vote winner-takes-all elections, was however a poor fit for a country with a tradition of strongly established local political structures. In this regard Former President Hamid Karzai (2001-2014) showed some pragmatism, while President Ghani was more adamant on implementing a Western-type political system. Ambassador Yamamoto asked if there was not an opportunity missed when the Taliban indicated its readiness to join the political reconciliation process in the 2002-2003 period.
Problems with the international community’s development assistance for Afghanistan were also highlighted. Over the entire 2001–2021 period about $150 billion went into Afghanistan, arguably beyond the country’s absorption capacity. While double-digit growth rate was often achieved during Karzai’s tenure, since 2014 economic growth has been closer to 1.5% per year. This, combined with a 3% population growth rate, left 60% of the population below the poverty line and greatly eroded the government’s legitimacy. In the meantime, corruption remained rampant. The Ambassador recalled that when he put fighting corruption at the forefront of his mission in Afghanistan, the UN HQ was worried about the possible security and safety risks to the staff working on the issue, but he received praise from Afghan nationals within the ranks of UN employees.
For the immediate future, the Ambassador expressed his hope that emergency humanitarian assistance will reach Afghanistan and prevent the death of millions as winter is approaching. A way needs to be found to differentiate the treatment of the U.S.-imposed sanctions and the need to have the cash-flow into the country to restart the economy running to help ease the humanitarian crisis. It is wrong to punish the people for Taliban victory, Ambassador Yamamoto asserted.
As for the prospects of longer-term stabilisation, the Ambassador stressed the importance of engagement by regional actors. Quoting Henry Kissinger, he also warned that the international community needs to set ‘achievable objectives’ and show pragmatism when engaging with the Taliban on issues like women’s rights or forming an inclusive government. Recalling his personal experience negotiating with the Taliban, he added that the organisation’s understanding of international affairs has become more sophisticated since 2001, but there is a certain tension between ‘soldiers’ and ‘diplomats’ among their ranks. A well-planned dialogue or a roadmap would be crucial to keep the Taliban engaged and prevent Afghanistan’s backsliding into a haven for terrorism and source of regional instability. Replying to audience questions, the Ambassador predicted that Pakistan may play a crucial role in facilitating this engagement but likely will tread carefully to avoid being internationally equated with Taliban interests; and voiced his opinion that from a specifically Japanese perspective China’s growing role in Afghanistan is less threatening than in North-East and South-East Asia, and there may be room for co-operation.
Tadamichi Yamamoto, who from 2010 to 2012 also served as Japan’s ambassador in Budapest, closed his remarks by referring to Hungary’s experience with democratic transition as a positive example of taking local realities into account during a successful regime change.
For the full recording please click on the link below or visit our YouTube-channel!
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