Post-Soviet states in the time of the pandemic

The Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (IFAT) held an online roundtable discussion entitled “Post-Soviet states in the time of the pandemic” on 22 April 2020. The panellists – Dr. László Vasa, Senior Research Fellow of IFAT, Sándor Ackermann, Analyst of IFAT and György Ilyash, Research Fellow of IFAT – analysed the politico-economic effects of the pandemic from the perspectives of Russia, Ukraine and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. The discussion was moderated by Anna Orosz, Research Fellow and Programme Manager for the Post-Soviet region and the Balkans from IFAT.

The panellist showcased the epidemiological situation and the responses taken against the coronavirus in the countries of the Post-Soviet region, and the possible economic and social effects of the pandemic. During the discussion, participants elaborated on how the global health crisis might alter the foreign policy priorities and regional integration aspirations of the countries in question.

György Ilyash explained that although Russia introduced strict and efficient measures on its border with China in the beginning of January, the country was not able to react on its European borders with the same efficiency. He stressed that Russia has significant bed capacities and conducted a large number of tests in world comparison, however, the lack of appropriate medical equipment and experts as well as the disparities between different regions must be also noted. Concerning the possible economic impacts of the pandemic, although the fall of the oil prices greatly affected the energy-dependent Russian economy, the country still has significant reverses and its external debt is one of the smallest in the world.

Sándor Ackermann explained that the pandemic reached Ukraine in a difficult political situation. Along with the establishment of the new government, the country was not able to make the appropriate preventive measures and as a consequence, it belatedly reacted to the epidemic. As a result, the Ukrainian economy faces serious challenges. The possible decrease of remittances also aggravates this situation: according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Interior, 650.000 Ukrainians working abroad returned as of the beginning of May. The next period will most certainly be defined by the negotiations with IMF: the question is whether the country could fulfil the conditions set by the international organisation in order to access financial assistance.

Elaborating on the peculiarities of the former Soviet states in Central Asia, Dr. László Vasa explained that in two out of these five countries – in Turkmenistan and Tajikistan – the threat of the pandemic has not been officially declared. Kazakhstan – which possesses the most developed healthcare system in the region – reacted with strict measures as the military substantially closed off bigger towns and cities. Uzbekistan has also responded quickly and efficiently, and it seems that the new Uzbek regime kept its promise about transparency as national data about the pandemic got publicity. Concerning the possible economic impact of the coronavirus, one cannot talk about extensive social safety nets in these states and so far, only the biggest economy of the region, Kazakhstan worked out a comprehensive economic rescue package.

At the end of the roundtable discussion, panellists elaborated on the possible effects of the pandemic to the region’s frozen conflicts and Russia’s economic support to these conflict-driven areas, such as Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Finally, they noted that international attention to the developments in Eastern Ukraine would decrease as a result of the global health crisis.

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