The Shadow of the Iran War Over the South Caucasus | Budapest Outlook 2026/1
The Karabakh peace process is stagnating, and one of the main obstacles is the unpredictable geopolitical environment created by the Iran War. A central pillar of the peace process is the proposed transport corridor along the Armenian–Iranian border known as TRIPP, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. The corridor would function as a mutually beneficial connectivity network linking the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Azerbaijan’s exclave of Nakhchivan, and Türkiye. In doing so, it could provide strong incentives for all stakeholders to pursue economic and political cooperation rather than confrontation.
TRIPP’s implementation, however, has stalled due to the preoccupation of the initiative’s principal sponsor, the United States, with the conflict in neighboring Iran, as well as broader uncertainty surrounding regional security. Beyond concerns over potential spillover effects from the war, several structural challenges continue to hinder progress, including the upcoming Armenian parliamentary elections and the ongoing debate surrounding constitutional references to the unification of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.
These are among the issues explored in the latest episode of Hungarian Institute of International Affairs’s Budapest Outlook podcast series.