Impacts of the War in Ukraine on the Western Balkans

The Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (IFAT) held an online conference entitled “Impacts of the War in Ukraine on the Western Balkans” on 11 March 2022. The event was moderated by Julianna Ármás, Research Fellow of IFAT, and panelists included Adnan Ćerimagić, Senior Analyst of the European Stability Initiative; Luka Šterić, Researcher of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy; and Bogdan Zawadewicz, Research Fellow of the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW). The conference focused on the possible consequences of war in Ukraine on the Western Balkan states.

In her opening remarks, Ms Ármás noted that Russia is still a dominant foreign player in the region and thus, it is highly important to assess the regional implications of its ongoing war in Ukraine.

In his presentation, Mr Ćerimagić pointed out the social, cultural and political rifts in the region which Russia could take advantage of. Regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina, Mr Ćerimagić called for a stronger EU presence and a need for reforms in the country. Regarding the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Mr Ćerimagić expressed concerns about possible Russian meddling in the multiethnic country. The analyst also assessed the internal politics of the country and stressed the importance of the new election law.

Mr Šterić described Serbia’s balancing foreign policy which makes it nearly impossible for Belgrade to take a side in the conflict. Mr Šterić pointed out that Serbia is heavily dependent on Russian gas, and the Kremlin is one of its biggest supporters regarding Kosovo. In the view of Mr Šterić, a tougher stance on the issue would cost a loss of public support for the Serbian government, especially a couple of weeks before the elections. Mr Šterić also argued that the Western powers are partly to blame for the current lack of prospects in the Western Balkan.

Mr Zawadewicz highlighted the contesting narratives in the Croatian foreign policy before and after the Russian attack and described the Russian narrative through the statements released by the Russian Embassy in Sarajevo. Mr Zawadewicz also focused on Russia’s soft power and its attractiveness in the region.

During the Q&A session, panellists discussed the future of the ongoing EUFOR Althea mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the outlooks of a new Montenegrin government regarding its policy towards Russia.

For the full recording please click on the link below or visit our YouTube-channel!