Geopolitics and the 2026 FIFA World Cup

HIIA Perspective – Written by Bailey Schwab

 

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, one of the world’s biggest sporting events, where over forty countries from all around will participate, is being co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico within a geopolitical context defined by global crises. Despite the game having working-class origins, the 2026 World Cup in North America is being described as the most expensive for fans in terms of travel, accommodation, and tickets.[1] Aside from the obvious crises, such as rising oil prices thanks to the blocked Strait of Hormuz as a consequence of the U.S.–Israel war against Iran and the still-raging Russia–Ukraine war in Eastern Europe, there are tensions amongst the hosts themselves, in large part since the United States, under the presidency of Donald Trump, is upending the global trading system and the security order which it has overseen since the end of the Cold War.

As a June 4 piece from the BBC put it, “Think of it as being like a dinner party where the hosts are in the midst of a tense argument when you arrive.”[2] Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s infamous comments earlier this year about the end of the so-called rules-based order were, in large part, made in response to Trump’s protectionist trade policies and his threats to take Greenland—the territory of a fellow NATO member—by force.[3] The U.S.–Mexico dynamic is also a source of tension, since Mexico has been the target of Trump’s attacks regarding illegal immigration and drug trafficking coming into the United States from the southern border since the earliest days of his political career. “Build a wall” was of course in reference to the need to secure the United States from illegal migrants and drugs coming into the country from Mexico.[4] In sum, this year’s FIFA World Cup is taking place within a unique and destabilizing moment.

The geopolitical and security aspects converging and defining the backdrop to the 2026 FIFA World Cup reflect the vulnerabilities emerging not only out of the various conflicts around the world, but more fundamentally out of the fallout of the collapsing post-Cold War order. First, there are diplomatic strains and border management issues among the host nations. Tightened border restrictions, ongoing political rhetoric surrounding national borders, and strict visa requirements could lead to major bottlenecking, fan exclusion, and diplomatic rows over which citizens are allowed entry to games. Second, there are the economic consequences from the ongoing conflicts, such as fuel inflation, supply chain disruptions, and economic protectionism, which is driving up costs for everyone from fans to corporate sponsors. Third, there is the geopolitical spillover from ongoing conflicts and tensions between nations. This means, as has always been the case to varying degrees, that national teams bring domestic tensions and historical baggage, which can create acute threats such as political protests, boycotts, or even targeted cyber warfare.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, then, is more than just a sports tournament: it is illustrating how contemporary geopolitics and geoeconomics are impacting everyday life, including the non-political events that humanity enjoys. Recent tourism reports have projected low figures for international travel due to “growing uncertainty related to U.S. immigration policies, geopolitical instability, tariffs and inflation.”[5] In other words, football fans should reflect on the October 2023 statement by the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, which stated that “you may not be interested in geopolitics, but geopolitics is interested in you.”[6]

 

How Football (Soccer) Helps Explain the World

Before we delve into the three main geopolitical aspects of the tournament, some brief attention should be given to how football, in particular, provides unique insights into global politics and globalization.[7] In this light, in How Soccer Explains the World: An Unlikely Theory of Globalization, Franklin Foer argued that while globalization—especially the globalization of the 1990s—made the world smaller, which itself led to fears that local cultures would be erased and the world would be subsequently homogenized, “globalisation had failed to diminish the game’s local cultures, local blood feuds.”[8] However, Foer noted in an interview in 2004 that football is “further along in the globalisation game than any other economy on the planet,” which allows it to offer insight into how multinational corporations capitalize on low wages in certain places around the world and into how nationalisms emerge, are expressed, and contained in what are considered “safer” and more “enlightened” forms than in the past.[9]

What this suggests is that the football stadium has become a harmless venue within the globalized and liberal paradigm where people can express those feelings which they otherwise have to suppress in the political sphere, such as their frustrations and grievances with “the other”—the other class, the other nation, or the other government. In this way, the sport plays an important pacifying function in the globalized and liberal era, particularly in much of the Western world. However, while the World Cup is being sized up by FIFA president Gianni Infantino to be “the greatest event that humanity has ever seen,” financial pressure on fans, as well as diplomatic tensions and geopolitical spill overs are also adding additional strains.[10] Understanding those pressures can help provide insights into the geopolitical super cycle under which we are all residing.

 

Diplomatic Strain and Border Management Issues

One of Trump’s core policies—restricting immigration into the United States, which has been framed by the administration to tackle one of the consequences of globalization, namely mass migration—has become a sensitive issue in this year’s World Cup. Fans from countries such as Haiti, Iran, Senegal, and Ivory Coast, all of whom have qualified and will be playing, are barred from receiving the visa that the U.S. authorities recommend for fans, the BBC reports.[11] Restrictions have been accompanied by political messaging. In June 2025, Vice President JD Vance warned fans against overstaying their welcome saying, “We want them to come, we want them to celebrate…But when the time is up we want them to go home, otherwise they will have to talk to Secretary Noem.”[12]

Trump’s much tougher stance on migration has already caused some controversy in the run up to this World Cup. For example, the Senegal national team had all of their luggage humiliatingly checked by the authorities on the runway, one referee from Somalia and one Iraqi staff member have been denied entry at U.S. airports, and dozens of fans from all over the world have been denied travel visas despite having tickets.[13] Consequently, this is leading some to suggest the policies of the Trump administration are making this World Cup more exclusionary than inclusive. What this reflects is that the tournament has intensified debates over a core U.S. national security concern—border security—as well as the management of large-scale population movements, which will place additional pressure on authorities responsible for providing security. Consequently, preparations for the 2026 World Cup have become entangled in wider debates about national sovereignty, border control, and the U.S. administration’s commitment to its immigration agenda.

 

The Economics of the 2026 World Cup

Football is also important from an economics perspective. Notwithstanding the fact that professional sport has become a legitimate and established area of interest and study for both theoretical and empirical economists, the commercial and financial aspects of football have grown since the 1990s to such a degree that the biggest events in the sport, such as the World Cup final, are attended by the world’s most powerful figures from politics, culture, and finance because of the attention such events garner. For example, the 2022 World Cup final in Qatar between France and Argentina was watched by 1.4 billion people.[14] Many public figures and celebrities attended the final, including French President Emmanuel Macron, who was seen on camera by a global audience meeting and shaking hands with the world’s greatest players—some of whom earn tens of millions of dollars per year. For the 2026 World Cup, FIFA is expecting to take in $8.9 billion in revenue.[15] Research from the University of Surrey suggests that in the two quarters following a World Cup win, a country can see a GDP growth of 0.25 percent.[16] Each host nation is also projected to experience significant economic benefits.

A joint study by FIFA and the World Trade Organization suggests that the World Cup could contribute “$17.2 billion to US GDP, alongside $30.5 billion in gross output and around 185,000 jobs.”[17] According to Deloitte, the tournament will contribute $2.73 million in added value to the Mexican economy, which is the equivalent of 0.14 percent of its GDP.[18] Canada is also projected to experience increased economic output, GDP, labor income, and government revenue. FIFA estimates that the World Cup will contribute up to CAD 3.8 billion to the Canadian economy.[19] However, while these figures may paint a rosy picture, the positive economic effects the World Cup will not necessarily trickle down to the wider domestic economies of the hosts.

For example, although the services industry in each country has undergone a temporary hiring boom in preparation for the World Cup, the astronomical prices fans will have to pay to see their countries play—not only for tickets, but also for flights and accommodation—will undermine the extent to which their economies will benefit from the tournament overall. This is not only because the money received from ticket sales, flights, and accommodation will go to the coffers of the large multinational companies providing these services, but because the cost of attendance is so high that many people simply cannot afford to go. As it pertains to accommodation, the CEO of Hilton Hotels Chris Nassetta has stated that “the World Cup, at this point, doesn’t look as strong as what we had hoped.”[20] On ticket pricing, tickets for the July 19 final are starting around $8,000 on resale sites and $9,085 on the FIFA website.[21] FIFA has been criticized for using “variable pricing,” or dynamic pricing, which is where prices for tickets fluctuate based on real or perceived demand, leading to unrealistic prices that many fans of the originally working-class sport have not been able to afford, and the forces of geoeconomics are stress-testing fans.[22]

The lingering economic consequences of global conflicts have further increased the cost of international travel and attendance. As certain analysts have recently pointed out, “the ongoing war in Iran has resulted in soaring inflation and high fuel prices, neither of which bodes well for tourism or event attendance.”[23] Kim and Nauright thus argued that “the key to success of the 2026 World Cup in the U.S., including Miami, is to understand current economic and political concerns fairly and correctly first, and then implement innovative short-term strategies before the event kicks off.”[24]

 

Geopolitical Spillovers

Previous World Cups have led to some iconic moments, not only for the skill on display, but also because of the political and historical tensions between the countries playing. During the 1986 World Cup hosted by Mexico, Argentina’s Diego Maradona scored two infamous goals against England in the quarter final—he scored the first illegally with his hand (which has since been called the “Hand of God”), and he scored the second after dribbling the ball from his own half through England’s players, a goal considered to be one of the best ever scored in football history. However, this match took place against a tense geopolitical backdrop: four years earlier, the United Kingdom and Argentina had fought a war over the Falkland Islands, which the latter lost. Maradona later justified his use of the hand to score the goal as an act of symbolic revenge for Britain’s war with Argentina.[25]

From crowds booing another’s national anthem to invocations of geopolitical and historical grievances about the opponent’s country, such instances are symbolic of how memories, histories, and nationalisms are projected onto World Cup games. In the case of the 2026 World Cup, Iran, with which the United States is currently engaged in an active military conflict, will potentially be playing on American soil. This setup evokes memories of the highly charged 1998 World Cup match between the United States and Iran in France, which was then dubbed the “most politically charged game in football history.”[26] At the time, players exchanged white roses as a symbol of peace, yet the match remained a focal point for global political messaging and state identity. How geopolitical and historical grievances will spill over in this World Cup remains to be seen. One thing is for sure, though, the authorities providing security for the event will be taking them into consideration.

 

Endnotes

[1] Matt Slater, “Why FIFA’s 2026 World Cup is Such a Rip-Off,” The Athletic, June 4, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7270111/2026/06/04/fifa-world-cup-expense-tickets-price/.

[2] Anthony Zurcher, Jessica Murphy, and Will Grant, “Can the US, Mexico and Canada Set Aside Their Differences as They Co-Host the World Cup?,” BBC, June 4, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgz2081y8ko.

[3] “Davos 2026: Special Address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada,” January 20, 2026, World Economic Forum, https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-special-address-by-mark-carney-prime-minister-of-canada/.

[4] Nolan D. Mccaskill, “Trump Promises Wall and Massive Deportation Program,” Politico, August 31, 2016, https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-immigration-address-arizona-227612.

[5] Hunter Kim and John Nauright, “Inflation and Immigration Fears Threaten to Dampen Miami’s Economic Benefits from the World Cup,” The Conversation, June 3, 2026, https://theconversation.com/inflation-and-immigration-fears-threaten-to-dampen-miamis-economic-benefits-from-the-world-cup-282222.

[6] Cindy Levy, Shubham Singhal, and Matt Watters, “A Proactive Approach to Navigating Geopolitics is Essential to Thrive,” McKinsey & Company, November 12, 2024, https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/geopolitics/our-insights/a-proactive-approach-to-navigating-geopolitics-is-essential-to-thrive.

[7] As the author is English, “football” will—of course—be the term used except when quoting directly.

[8] Bradford Plumer, “How Soccer Explains the World,” Mother Jones, August 4, 2004, https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2004/08/how-soccer-explains-world-2/.

[9] Plumer, “How Soccer Explains the World.”

[10] “2026 World Cup Draw: Trump Takes Center Stage and Wins Inaugural FIFA Peace Prize,” Le Monde, December 5, 2025, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/12/05/2026-world-cup-draw-trump-takes-center-stage-as-he-wins-inaugural-fifa-peace-prize_6748191_4.html.

[11] Nadia Huraimi, “‘A World Cup for Them Not Us’: Fans’ Anger at US Travel Bans and Visa Restrictions,” BBC, June 7, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx212p8r28eo.

[12] Amanda Langell, “JD Vance Warns World Cup Fans About Overstaying Their Welcome,” SI, June 4, 2025, https://www.si.com/soccer/jd-vance-warns-world-cup-fans-about-overstaying-their-welcome.

[13] Sergio Martínez-Beltrán, “A Warm World Cup Welcome? U.S. Immigration Policies Have Chilling Effect,” NPR, June 9, 2026, https://www.npr.org/2026/06/09/nx-s1-5851634/immigration-policies-affect-fifa.

[14] “Global Engagement & Audience Report (Executive Summary),” FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, accessed June 10, 2026, https://inside.fifa.com/tournament-organisation/audience-reports/qatar-2022.

[15] Matt Hughes, “The $13bn World Cup: How the Numbers Stack Up on FIFA’s 2026 Balance Sheet,” The Guardian, April 30, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/football/ng-interactive/2026/apr/30/the-13bn-world-cup-how-the-numbers-stack-up-on-fifas-2026-balance-sheet.

[16] Joe Aylott, “Beyond the Beautiful Game: The Investment Implications of the World Cup,” Coutts, June 8, 2026, https://www.coutts.com/insights/investing/the-investment-implications-of-the-world-cup.html.

[17] Aylott, “Beyond the Beautiful Game.”

[18] Deloitte, “Get Ready for the World Cup: New Business Opportunities,” February 9, 2026, https://www.deloitte.com/latam/es/services/financial-advisory/perspectives/preparate-para-el-mundial-nuevas-oportunidades-para-los-negocios.html.

[19] FIFA, “FIFA World Cup 26 to Deliver Estimated CAD 3.8bn in Economic Output for Canada,” December 10, 2024, https://inside.fifa.com/organisation/news/fifa-world-cup-26-to-deliver-estimated-cad-3-8bn-in-economic-output-for-canada.

[20] Henry Bushnell, “The Myth of the 2026 World Cup Hotel and Tourism ‘Boom,’” The Athletic, April 22, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7217651/2026/04/22/world-cup-hotel-tourism-prices-usa/.

[21] ABC News, “Still Thinking About World Cup Tickets? Here’s Where Prices, Availability Stand,” June 11, 2026, https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/thinking-world-cup-tickets-prices-availability-stand-133767236.

[22] Henry Bushnell, “The 2026 World Cup Ticket Saga, Explained from Start to (Almost) Finish,” The Athletic, June 8, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7341387/2026/06/08/world-cup-2026-ticket-prices-saga-controversy/.

[23] Kim and Nauright, “Inflation and Immigration Fears Threaten to Dampen Miami’s Economic Benefits.”

[24] Kim and Nauright, “Inflation and Immigration Fears Threaten to Dampen Miami’s Economic Benefits.”

[25] Barnaby Lane, “Diego Maradona’s Career Defining Performance at the 1986 World Cup Was a Symbolic Revenge for Britain’s War with Argentina, and Made Him a ‘God’ Back Home,” Business Insider, November 26, 2020, https://www.businessinsider.com/diego-maradona-hand-of-god-was-revenge-for-the-falklands-2020-11.

[26] Neil Billingham, “USA vs Iran at France ’98: The Most Politically Charged Game in World Cup History,” FourFourTwo, April 1, 2022, https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/usa-vs-iran-france-98-most-politically-charged-game-world-cup-history.

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