Border changes in the Balkans: reality or fiction?
The Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (IFAT) held a roundtable discussion entitled “Border changes in the Balkans: reality or fiction?” on 22 April 2021. The event was moderated by Julianna Ármás, IFAT Research Fellow and the panelists included László Márkusz, IFAT Senior Research Fellow and Ferenc Németh, IFAT Research Fellow.
The document (non-paper) which was published in April 2021, has received significant attention from the international press. The document contains a plan of creating new borders in the Balkans, which would have a significant impact on the current borders of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Serbia. The panel discussion focused on examining the issue of border changes in a broader context.
Border disputes, ethnic minorities’ problems and various conflicts have been present in the Balkans in the last decades. However, as participants pinpointed, while the non-paper would solve the problems of the region by the recreation of borders, practically this action would not lead to significant breakthrough, neither in case of national minorities nor when it comes to the deeper economic challenges in the Balkans.
László Márkusz and Ferenc Németh also agreed that the ethnic issues cannot be limited to the Western Balkans, the case of minorities and the detriment of nations are not unique in Europe. Furthermore, border changes are not an adequate solution even for nationalities, as redrawing borders can easily generate brand-new problems for some ethnic groups. During the discussion, the participants went deeper into the stability of the Balkan region, which also highlighted the economic shortcomings of the region.
László Márkusz emphasized that there has not been enough foreign direct investment (FDI) in the region in the last two decades and the foreign trade balance is also very low. In spite of the fact that a lot of financial support were provided by the European Union (EU)–especially by Germany or even Hungary–, Chinese and Russian investments are also mentionable, while the production of the Balkan countries for foreign markets is negligible. The border recreation would not have an impact on the economic problems, or on unemployment rates.
Ferenc Németh showcased the practical problems that can arise from border changes, because according to the document’s modifications, the concerned states may lose strategically important areas, and what is more, the rate of migration might also increase. Historical experience has shown that a significant part of population may start to migrate due to the drastic devaluation of the sense of their security. In this context László Márkusz mentioned that due to the ‘leopard-skin’-like location of the nations and ethnic minorities, it is not possible to divide the area on the basis of ethnicity, especially in the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The panelists agreed on that great powers also do not have an interest in changing borders and without their approval, this goal is completely impossible. The EU and the US are mindful to maintain the status quo because the EU integration process and close cooperation are possible in the current framework. Furthermore, the present situation is also favourable for Russia as well, and Moscow has rejected every prosecution in connection with the non-paper too.
Regarding Hungary, Ferenc Németh argued that the stability of the Balkan region, regardless of governments, is important for EU integration. The wave of migration resulting from border changes would also put pressure on Hungary, so changing borders cannot be interpreted as a Hungarian interest. László Márkusz emphasized that in terms of the Hungarian economy, this region is strategically essential to Hungarian small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as to big companies. During the debate, the issue of Hungarian minorities was raised, and participants agreed on the situation of Hungarians in Vojvodina may be harmed due to ethnical atrocities and this affair can also cause their emigration.
None of the researchers sees any chance for a peaceful border change, and László Márkusz mentioned the domino effect as the “need” for territorial changes would create new hotspots all across Europe. Ferenc Németh replied that this process could spill over all the way to the post-Soviet region too. The great powers’ interest is to preserve the stability of the region, so it is unlikely that the borders of the Western Balkan countries would be recreated in the future.
The full recording can accessed at the link below or on our YouTube-channel!