Will there be lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, or are we on the brink of another war? What could be the consequences of the escalation of the Israeli conflict in the South Caucasus countries neighboring Iran, and the western diplomatic efforts of Armenia? Is there a chance for a peaceful resolution of the conflicts in Georgia? These were some of the questions addressed by László Vasa (HIIA), Zoltán Egeresi (NKE-HIIA), and Máté György Vigóczki (MCC) in a public roundtable discussion held by the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs on November 14.
According to László Vasa, Senior Advisor and Senior Research Fellow at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, both Azerbaijan and Turkey have an interest in establishing the so-called Zangezur Corridor, which would connect Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan.
Responding to a question about the relationship between the region and the European Union, the senior advisor stated that after the EU “not very wisely” excluded Armenia from the list of countries eligible for accession, it sent a message to Armenians that the Caucasus is too distant for the EU to be concerned. He added that Italy and France risk escalating the conflict by supplying weapons to Armenia, while Azerbaijan is being supplied by Israel, Turkey, and Russia.
Regarding the peace agreement, László Vasa sees peace as the only option for Armenia, as the planned Central Transport Corridor will only affect Armenians if they reconcile with Azerbaijan and Turkey. This would be their only chance to break out of isolation.
Zoltán Egeresi, Associate Research Fellow and Researcher at the NKE Institute for Strategic and Defense Studies, explained that Azerbaijani-Turkish relations have strengthened significantly in the last 10-15 years. In 2010, the two countries signed a military cooperation agreement, and Azerbaijan has become increasingly present in Turkey economically, especially in the energy sector. This benefits both parties, as Turkey couldn’t become a regional energy distributor without Azerbaijan. The relationship between the two countries has gained importance in the context of the Central Transport Corridor.
Máté György Vigóczki, Russia researcher at the MCC Center for Geopolitics, stated that due to the recent Karabakh military actions, Russia’s military role in the region has diminished, but its economic and diplomatic influence remains significant in both Baku and Yerevan. Moreover, Azerbaijan’s role is crucial for the Russian economy, not only in the context of the Central Corridor but also in the North-South Transport Corridor. He emphasized that Moscow portrays the situation as a reduction in Western influence rather than Russian influence. Additionally, Moscow supports the connection of Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan by road and rail, as it would establish direct links between Russia and Turkey.