HIIA Analysis – The full analysis is available here.
The Hungarian Prime Minister did not sign the declaration on Ukraine at the March 6 EU summit, and indicated that Hungary will hold a consultative referendum on whether Ukraine should join the European Union. This is necessary because Ukraine’s accession process is progressing at an accelerated pace, contrary to the EU’s own rules.
Beyond potentially causing tensions among Western Balkan countries—some of which have been waiting for EU membership for as long as twenty years—Ukraine’s accession also raises significant economic and social challenges, particularly in areas such as EU funding, infrastructure, and migration. Given the scale and export-oriented nature of Ukraine’s agricultural sector, its membership would significantly reshape the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, potentially leading to a reduction in support for current member states. Moreover, a fast-tracked accession could bring substantial changes to the EU’s decision-making system. The reconstruction of Ukraine would also require considerable resources. Labor market shifts and potential migration waves could pose further challenges for the EU, especially in terms of border control and security.
The present study examines the possible consequences of Ukraine’s accession for the EU and Hungary for this very reason.