The Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (HIIA) has published a landmark study examining the financial and strategic implications of Ukraine’s potential EU accession.
The results are available in the HIIA’s new report entitled “The Cost of Accession: Who Will Pay for Ukraine’s EU Membership?” The results reveal that the costs for the European Union could reach an astonishing 2.5 trillion euros—more than twelve times the EU’s 2025 budget.
Ukraine’s EU accession could cost each Hungarian taxpayer nearly four million forints. Further, due to the loss of Common Agricultural Policy funds, Hungarian farmers could face a further burden of 3.2 million forints.
The study underscores the significant and far-reaching economic consequences that such an enlargement would entail, not just for Hungary but for the entire EU.
The report was launched by Gladden Pappin, President of the HIIA, who emphasized that recent geopolitical developments, including the change in the U.S. administration, have brought a partial ceasefire thanks to the leadership of Donald Trump. With this, Ukraine’s EU integration has shifted from a distant prospect to an imminent policy challenge. Given the magnitude of its impact, the HIIA has undertaken a comprehensive analysis to assess both the financial and strategic ramifications of this potential enlargement.
Pappin highlighted the key findings of the upcoming study, which projects that the EU-wide financial burden of Ukraine’s accession could amount to almost 2.5 trillion euros in the coming years. This figure encompasses multiple cost categories, including reconstruction efforts (up to one trillion euros), defense expenditures (350 billion euros), security enforcement (150 billion), institutional integration (70 billion), and economic support (300 billion), including interest payments on government debt (530 billion euros).
Hungary alone could be expected to shoulder 48 billion euros (nearly 20 trillion forints) over the same period, equivalent to 70 percent of the country’s 2023 national budget. This would impose a severe financial burden on key sectors, particularly agriculture. The study reveals that changes to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) could result in an estimated annual loss of 1.7 billion euros (672 billion forints) for Hungarian farmers.
Péter Siklósi, Senior Research Fellow at HIIA and one of the authors of the study, provided further insights into the report’s findings. He stressed that while Ukraine’s accession is framed as a strategic necessity, its economic feasibility has not been adequately considered by EU decision makers. He warned that Ukraine’s proposed fast-track accession by 2030 and the redistribution of EU funds in its favor would generate long-term financial instability across the bloc. He warned that Ukraine’s proposed fast-track accession by 2030 and the redistribution of EU funds in its favor would generate long-term financial instability across the bloc.
Siklósi also noted that there are political problems as well around the accession. Western Balkan countries may justifiably be angered by the fast-track accession process given that some have been waiting for close to 20 years for EU membership.
At the panel discussion on the study, Philip Pilkington, Senior Research Fellow at HIIA, analyzed the broader economic risks. According to him, the total cost of rebuilding Ukraine could exceed one trillion euros, with the caveat that estimated cost projections are increasing each year. He cautioned that financing Ukraine’s accession would mean substantial debt accumulation, potentially exacerbating the financial vulnerability of already indebted EU member states. Pilkington also pointed out the risk that corruption and inefficient spending could turn Ukraine into a “financial black hole,” where billions of euros in EU funds could be misallocated.
Beyond financial concerns, the panelists also underscored geopolitical and institutional risks. They noted that Ukraine’s membership would significantly alter the balance of power within the European Parliament and the Council of the EU, potentially diminishing the influence of smaller nations. Moreover, the EU’s mutual defense clause (Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union) raises the possibility of further entanglement in regional conflicts, increasing security risks for the entire continent.
The HIIA’s study concludes that Ukraine’s integration into the EU would impose an extraordinary economic burden on the already struggling European economy while simultaneously posing severe security and social challenges. As the process of Ukraine’s accession moves forward, the HIIA urges European policymakers across to engage in an open and critical dialogue about the financial, strategic, political, and social risks involved. The full study is available on the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs’ website
Budapest, March 19, 2025