Analysis by Philippe Pellet
The military offensive unleashed on 4 November, 2020 by the central government in Addis Ababa against the regional state of Tigray is the culmination of escalating tensions between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, in power since 2018, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Ethiopian federal troops, supported by the military forces of Amhara regional state and the Eritrean army, quickly occupied the main towns in Tigray by late November 2020, but Tigrayan forces retained control of large areas, particularly in the mountainous regions, where fighting continued. An offensive launched in June 2021 by the Tigrayan forces resulted in the recapture of the main towns, including Tigray’s capital Mekelle, leading the Ethiopian government to declare a unilateral ceasefire. There are numerous testimonies on major abuses and killings of civilians and clerics by the occupying forces, as well as looting of key infrastructure, leading to a major humanitarian crisis. Humanitarian aid has been hampered by continued fighting and access restrictions. The ceasefire raised hopes that massive humanitarian aid can finally be delivered, but statements made by Abiy Ahmed in June 2021, denying the existence of famine in Tigray and accusing aid organizations of supporting Tigrayan rebels, raise fears that the government’s strategy may be to maintain a blockade of Tigray, further exacerbating an already catastrophic humanitarian situation. In addition to analysing the immediate causes and consequences, this study also shows that this conflict has its roots in the long history of a country composed of more than 80 ethnic groups.
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