Analysis by Andrei Rădulescu and László Vasa
The recent dynamics of the global, European and regional macro-financial indicators confirm the maturity of the post-crisis cycle. On the one hand, we point out that the escalation of the US–China trade tensions may precipitate the end of this cycle, as the downward trade for the global exports is already impacting the manufacturing sector (the engine of the economy) with unfavourable spill-over effect for the investment climate. On the other hand, the Digital Revolution has been gradually incorporated in both developed and developing countries, generating positive shocks in terms of total factor productivity. Overall, the expansionary policymix measures recently signalled across the main economies of the world (the USA, China, Euroland) express prospects for a normal end of the cycle. Looking at the European Union there can be noticed the performance of the Romanian economy during the post-crisis cycle, the country managed to double the nominal GDP from 2006 to 2018 and to increase the GDP/capita to above EUR 10,000 last year. In this paper, we implement standard econometric tools and use the Eurostat database in order to assess the recent developments and to identify the mid-run prospects for Romanian economy.