On January 16, 2025, the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (HIIA) held a roundtable discussion titled, “The Revival of the Monroe Doctrine? Trump’s Geopolitical Ambitions in the Western Hemisphere.“ The panelists included Tamás Baranyi, Director for Strategy at HIIA, Attila Demkó, Head of the Strategic Foresight Program at the John Lukács Institute of the National University of Public Service, and Zsolt Reile, HIIA Senior Researcher. The discussion was moderated by Lilla Kakuk, Advisor to the President at HIIA.
In the first half of the discussion, the experts analyzed the reality and geopolitical implications of Donald Trump’s recent statements, especially regarding Greenland and the Panama Canal. They all agreed that in most cases, the future U.S. president’s statements are meant to appeal to Republican voters, a large part of whom already demand the somewhat extravagant statements that Donald Trump is used to, but that in all cases the President-elect’s statements also give some indication of his real intentions.
Attila Demkó argued that while Canada’s possible accession to the United States, as envisaged by Trump, is more of a “political grandstanding” to voters, Greenland and the Arctic are indeed in the crosshairs of the geopolitical interests of the major powers and are clearly an undeclared sphere of interest for the U.S.
Regarding the Panama Canal, Zsolt Reile pointed out its extreme importance in the U.S. trade infrastructure, underlining that the U.S. sees Panama as its “darling” because of the great role it played in its construction. In this context, Trump is understandably concerned about the Chinese presence, which, while still significantly smaller than the U.S., has recently been on the rise.
Tamás Baranyi recalled the words of a guest visiting MKI earlier this year, that Trump’s second term will focus on securing for the U.S. the raw materials and other resources that already exist in the Western Hemisphere. At the same time, he pointed out that the Western world tends to interpret the U.S. interest-building through rose-colored glasses, especially since the U.S. narrative is highly effective in reconciling itself with the oft-vaunted principle of popular sovereignty.
To conclude the discussion, the experts addressed the situation in Europe, unanimously stressing that the continent needs to change significantly if it is to be a serious geopolitical player, not only in the eyes of the major powers but also in the eyes of the rest of the world. Despite the hopes of the European political elite, it is now clear that Donald Trump is not a passing phenomenon but a growing trend in American society, and that Europe must learn the necessary lessons if it wants to keep pace with its biggest ally.