The Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (HIIA) held a roundtable discussion on 7 November, 2024 on the results of the U.S. presidential election held two days earlier and its expected consequences for Europe and the world. The participants were Dr. Gladden J. Pappin, President of HIIA, Dr. Tamás Baranyi, Strategic Director at HIIA, and Daniel Whitehead, Budapest Fellow. The event was moderated by Csaba Stefán, Reseacrh Fellow at HIIA.
The discussion began with an analysis of how Trump managed to secure such a significant victory. The panelists approached the issue from different angles. Dr. Pappin, the Institute’s President, pointed out that Trump performed better than expected across all demographic groups because, despite criticisms from Democrats, he was indeed a popular candidate, as was his running mate, J.D. Vance. Tamás Baranyi also emphasized that part of the victory was a Republican “red wave” among society, as they managed to win over blue-collar voters, while the Democrats failed to reach out to the American society as a whole, focusing only on specific subgroups. Daniel Whitehead added that the Republicans managed to authentically revive the idea of “Old America” and successfully communicated this vision.
Regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, the discussion centered on whether Trump could rally support for a peaceful resolution even among those Republicans who demand a tough stance against Russia. The panelists highlighted that while this hardline Republican faction does exist and is, in a way, “re-living the Cold War” through this conflict, there is hope for a collective diplomatic effort to resolve the war. As more people recognize that spending endless taxpayer money on a war with an uncertain outcome may not be wise, there’s a chance for a more measured approach. Moreover, the panelists noted that in the new multipolar world, the U.S. has finite resources for managing wars and must increasingly focus on areas where strategic objectives can be realistically achieved.
The Institute’s President emphasized that, in addition to spending 2% of GDP on defense, the mentality of NATO allies is crucial—how willing are they to constructively adapt to the alliance’s priorities rather than their own? Tamás Baranyi added that the mentality of Central and Eastern Europe should set the tone for the future. “We need to be more like Budapest, not like Berlin,” he said. Finally, Daniel Whitehead explained that the entire NATO alliance, including at the institutional level, must shift its mindset. While continuing to support the liberal, rules-based world order, it should adopt a more realistic and pragmatic approach.
The discussion ended with an analysis of the fate of the liberal world order. There was no disagreement among the speakers that, while this system will not disappear with Trump’s election, its institutions and the countries involved will shift towards a more transactional, bilateral relationship-based approach.