More than one Year Later: an Evaluation of the Geopolitical Implications of the Second Karabakh War

Analysis by Zoltán Egeresi

This paper describes the background and main cornerstone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and reveals the main geopolitical outcomes of the second Karabakh war. It argues that the war has caused a major geopolitical shift in the region, as it has cemented Russia’s military presence in Karabakh, thus creating a frozen conflict despite the Azerbaijani victory and territorial gains. Furthermore, it has also strengthened the position of Turkey in the region and boosted the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance, which gathered pace throughout 2021. However, other regional actors such as Iran see this change as increasingly threatening. Various attempts to create a regional forum to mend fences and establish stability have had limited results, thus tensions remain permanent in the South Caucasus.

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