Policy Brief – Written by Zsolt Trembeczki
On balance, the 2025 India–Pakistan conflict’s final outcome was remarkably unremarkable—after a couple rounds of escalation, the two sides agreed to de-escalate as anticipated. While larger in scale, the conflict mostly reflected the usual dynamic of post-1999 Indo-Pak skirmishes. At the same time, it did reveal some potentially surprising lessons. No, stripping Indianadministered Kashmir of its special autonomy in 2019 did not bring the desired long-term stability. No, French-made Rafale jets did not give India a decisive technological edge. No, downing Rafales did not mean Pakistan was able to win the conflict militarily. Yes, Pakistan can in fact still snatch a global reputational victory right under India’s nose. These revelations may not fundamentally recalibrate our understanding of the region but should inform analyses of the future of the Kashmir conflict and regional security.
The full analysis is available here.