Gladden Pappin
Hungary has just finished hosting its fifth Budapest Demographic Summit since 2015—drawing governmental representatives from Bulgaria, Italy, Tanzania, Serbia, Kazakhstan, Türkiye, Qatar, Bahrain, Tunisia and Ecuador. What is the diplomatic significance of such an event? For the most part, family policy has been perceived as an internal matter of domestic governance. But the changing context of the Budapest Demographic Summit helps to shine an international light on demographic questions. When the Summit began in 2015, the main international circumstance was the migration crisis facing the European Union, with Hungary in effect on the front lines. In 2017, the disruptive political events of 2016—Brexit and the election of President Trump—were prompting a new interest in “populist” policies. By 2019, the family policies that Hungary had begun were beginning to show their effect. Soon thereafter the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted everything that citizens thought they knew about ordinary life, and the 2021 Summit was held just as the pandemic measures were beginning to lift.
With each new shift of international context, the importance of securing ordinary family life has only increased. Now since the beginning of the war, two elements have become particularly clear. First, security for families is impossible except in peacetime; but second, only a society with strong families can be prepared to defend itself when necessary. Indeed, a society without secure families is no society at all. Demographic questions and the importance of securing the family now provides an aspect for international exchange that cuts across other geopolitical and even ideological divides. As family security is threatened by migration, war, pandemics, economic uncertainty and hostile ideology, it is becoming increasingly apparent that family security will be an essential part of any global stability that emerges in the coming decades.
In order to highlight the international significance of demography, researchers from the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs offer the following perspectives on the demographic challenges facing Africa, the Western Balkans and China.
Source: Budapest Demographic Summit 2023
Demographic Instability in Africa and Beyond – by Hanga Horváth-Sántha
Though population growth in numerous regions has slowed down worldwide, Africa—a continent that is larger than China, India, the United States, Japan and most of Europe combined—has displayed a steady population growth of 2.42 percent annually for the past thirty years. If it continues along the same lines of demographic growth, the population of the continent is anticipated to increase to at least 2.4 billion people by 2050 and to 4.2 billion people (four times its current number), in the next hundred years. Given these estimates that the population of Africa is expected to make up a quarter of humanity in under three decades, it is extremely important to work with African countries. With a fast-expanding population, rising urbanization and what will soon be the largest labor force in the world, Africa has the potential to develop into a major force in the world economy. But if poor governance, ethnic strife and poorly managed climate change prevail, the whole continent could succumb to extremism, violence and unprecedented migration. In 2023, therefore, no government hoping for global stability can ignore the need to partner with Africa.
Demographic Crisis in the Western Balkans – by Ferenc Németh
The Western Balkans is heading towards a demographic crisis. Similar to European demographic trends, the population is shrinking, and the level of brain drain is making the issue even more alarming. The loss of a highly skilled and young labor force has a direct, negative impact on local economies, already causing labor shortages in the region. Moreover, the Western Balkans is by far one of the largest recipients of remittances: around 10 percent of these states’ GDP comes from their compatriots working mainly in Western European (EU member) states. The Western Balkans, therefore, cannot build a sustainable and competitive economy in times of major demographic changes. From another angle, brain drain directly impacts the countries’ EU accession processes. The departure of skilled labor force from public administration will make it difficult to thoroughly implement technical reforms in the absence of proper local expertise. This example demonstrates the complex nature and multifaceted implications of the loss of population. Although resolving the worsening demographic crisis is a must for all Western Balkan states, effective solutions are yet to be discovered. Stopping depopulation is thus one of the many areas that connect the Western Balkans and central Europe, and sharing best practices would be essential, both politically and economically.
China’s Demographic Future – Gergely Salát
Though it was not unexpected, the official announcement in early 2023 was still received with shock in China: the country’s population shrank for the first time since time immemorial. Further, in April India took over China as the world’s most populous country. Though it was an avowed goal of the Chinese government for decades to stop population increase—and they are very far from a demographic decline—it is still uneasy to be part of a shrinking community. The problem is not shrinking per se, though—it’s aging. In 2000, only 10 percent of the population of China was older than 60, but in 2020 the rate was 18 percent, while it is projected to become 32 percent by 2040, and the tendency could go on for decades. That could create an unprecedented situation: a country that is becoming old before becoming wholly developed. This has serious implications for the country’s economic prospects, since up until now, the “demographic dividend” played an important role in the Chinese model. This dividend is now over and China needs a new model. The Chinese government is well aware of all this, and decided to address this complex issue by 1) developing family support programs, 2) laying the foundation for a universal pension system and 3) trying to bolster productivity and new technologies to make up for the shrinking labor force. There’s a lot to do for Beijing, and the demographic issue remains a critical one for China’s international politics and global role.