The Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (HIIA) 2025. on February 11, 2025 held a closed discussion with W. Gyude Moore Inaugural Visiting Fellow at Global Neighbours and former minister of public works of Liberia. The discussion was moderated by Tamás Baranyi, Director for Strategy at HIIA.
Gyude Moore began the discussion by noting that infrastructure development in Africa continues to be dominated by China despite recent Western responses like the Global Gateway and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII). The reason for Chinese dominance is threefold. (1) Chinese firms are better than African ones but cheaper than European ones, filling a unique niche. (2) The Angola model of developing infrastructure in exchange for abundant natural resources is particularly attractive for African countries. (3) China is also willing to invest in projects that others were historically reluctant to invest in, namely manufacturing infrastructure. On this topic, Tamás Baranyi noted that the Chinese were the first to show interest in investing in North-South connectivity in the CEE region, after which the EU suddenly became willing to invest after decades of investing only in periphery-core connectivity.
Chinese companies understand the African market. The Chinese phone company Transsion, for example, dominates 43% of the smartphone market on the continent. It was able to do this by investing in cameras that render black faces much better than the previously existing technology, offering different pricing schemes so that anyone could afford their phones, and becoming the first to offer dual SIM technology, which is especially useful in Africa as many Africans have multiple SIMs and use them based on which one offers the best deal at the time.
As a U.S. policymaker, it’s impossible not to see China in Africa as a threat—the sheer extent to which China dominates global manufacturing would be devastating if China ever chose to convert this industrial capacity to warmaking. From an African perspective, though, China is an inspiration. Just a few decades ago, infant mortality in the country was worse than the rate in Afghanistan today (currently the worst). In many ways, it was where African countries are today.
The Chinese are interest-driven, and their presence in Africa is driven by the internal needs of the Chinese economy. As an export-oriented economy, they rely heavily on minerals like copper, iron, and bauxite, and they must guarantee access to these if they want to avoid another Century of Humiliation. Africans, for their part, are the ones who have asked for infrastructure investments ports, airports, and roads, because these are what they need. Part of the push for infrastructure is the desire to move beyond previously existing colonial dynamics. The goal is to start exporting processed goods (ex: steel rather than iron ore), but this requires infrastructure development, which is why Chinese investments are so important. Still, this infrastructure is dual use and could be mobilized by China in the future. There have been some tensions with the Chinese, especially at lower levels, such as when Chinese open small corner stores that competed with African traders.
It would be a mistake to assume that China is the only important actor in the region. Only 17% of African debt is to China—what about the other 80%? There are also aspects to consider beyond investment. For example, thanks to the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) program, more than 25 million people on the continent are alive today that otherwise would not be. The way to think of the U.S. and China in the region is like Lionel Messi and Michael Jordan—both are incredible athletes, but they play different sports.
Ultimately, the current state of Africa is understandable considering the historical context. David Cameron once said that when it comes to building rule of law, the first 500 years is important. The vast majority of the current African countries have existed as independent states for less than a century. Look at where the U.S. was after 100 years—it has just emerged from a civil war and entered the Jim Crow era. The existing borders of Chinese provinces were drawn during the Yuan Dynasty (the Mongols) almost 1000 years ago. It’s no wonder that Africa is still facing a multitude of challenges it must overcome.