On 12 April 2023, the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (IFAT) held a roundtable discussion entitled “Bulgaria Has Elected Again: Political Prospects in the Light of the Results”, with the participation of János T. Barabás, Senior Analyst of IFAT, Bálint L. Tóth, Research Fellow at Mathias Corvinus Collegium, and Jordán Tütünkov, Associate Professor at Budapest Metropolitan University. The discussion was moderated by Cintia Viola, Research Fellow of IFAT.
On 2 April 2023, Bulgaria held its fifth early parliamentary election in two years and the sixth one is already put in prospect due to the difficulty of coalition-building negotiations. The fragmentation of political parties, domestic and foreign policy developments in Bulgaria and the challenges facing the country were the main topics of the roundtable discussion.
Five years ago, during the Bulgarian Presidency of the Council of the EU, Bulgaria was the most prestigious country in the Balkan region, stressed Jordán Tütünkov. As an advocate for EU integration for the Western Balkans, it managed to bring Serbia and Kosovo to the same table and made positive progress in resolving its bilateral dispute with North Macedonia. Bulgaria’s name, however, has become a synonym to corruption, from which it has still not managed to escape. The attempt to overthrow the then government led to a weak parliamentary democracy and to the inefficiency of continuous elections.
As the fragmentation of the Bulgarian party system is concerned, we can observe trends typical of Central and Eastern European countries, such as the disappearance of the regime-changing parties, the rise of westernized parties in urban areas, and the political rise of people with no political background, said Bálint L. Tóth. In the current election campaign, however, no substantive issues of concern to the population were debated by either party. This way, the parties avoided explaining why Bulgaria did not become a member of the Schengen area and shifted the focus from solving the energy crisis.
Coalition-forming between the parties is difficult, the forming of long-lasting alliances is not probable. Nothing shows the apathic stance of the population better than the fact that the “I do not support anyone” option crossed the four-percent parliamentary threshold.
More than two-third of the Bulgarian population supports the country’s EU membership, but the perception of NATO has been less positive, especially since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. Joining previous speakers, János T. Barabás stressed that the EU does not take sufficient action in the Balkans (nor in Bulgaria), which leads to euro-skepticism and the rise of Russia-friendly parties; therefore, perceptions about the EU become dubious. Despite that, Hungary’s perception in Bulgaria and cooperation with the country remain positive.
Overall, no major changes are expected in Bulgaria’s domestic and foreign policy soon, and the popularity of individual politicians will be decisive in the upcoming municipal elections and next year’s European Parliament elections.
Photos by Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (HIIA)