At the roundtable discussion titled “Beyond the Front Lines – The Political and Social Impacts of War Fatigue” organized by the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs on June 5, 2025, Csilla Fedinec, Senior Research Fellow at the HUN-REN Centre for Social Sciences, Anton Bendarzsevszkij, Director of the Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation, and Gábor Miklós, Assistant Lecturer at Corvinus University of Budapest, discussed the social consequences of the Russo–Ukrainian war and the signs of “war fatigue” beyond the front lines. The discussion was moderated by Sándor Seremet, Senior Research Fellow at HIIA.
At the beginning of the discussion, the panelists shared their views on the changes they are observing in Ukrainian society in the fourth year of the war. Csilla Fedinec explained that different segments of society have reacted differently to the war, as they have had different experiences. The differences in urbanization between eastern and western Ukraine and the resulting differences in lifestyle, as well as the uncertainty of whether eastern Ukrainians will ever be able to return to eastern Ukraine, have repeatedly caused tension between refugees and the local population in the west.
However, the experts agreed that the war initially came as a shock to all. Anton Bendarzsevszkij highlighted the presence of war fatigue and strong emotional polarization in society. After the outbreak of the war, Zelensky’s public support was 90%, which he has maintained with only a slight decline. Emotional polarization is present within society, though, in the sense that there is no consensus on how to end the war. He considers it unlikely that the people will turn against the current leaders of Ukraine. Instead, passive resistance has developed and continues to grow due to the lack of an end in sight.
Based on his personal experience, Gábor Miklós explained that as a result of the military conscription of men, women are forced to keep life going in rural areas. From farming and forestry work to public services, almost everything has become their responsibility. He highlighted the decline in the popularity of conscription due to war fatigue, as well. For this reason, conscription is mainly enforced in smaller settlements, as the population is slower to learn about it. As a result, the number of deaths caused by illegal border crossings has increased, as have mental health problems and suicide rates among men who are isolated or in hiding.
Finally, the experts agreed that there appears to be a difference in quality between the volunteers of 2022 and those who joined after that. This effect was already noticeable in 2023, when they began to reach the end of their capacity. There are several factors at play here, namely a decline in morale given the ongoing war and a growing sense of hopelessness within the army. As a result, Ukraine is running out of volunteers, which is causing and will continue to cause widespread social tension, making mobilization much more difficult.