Perspective – Written by Ruslan Bortnik
Armenia stands at a perilous crossroads, torn between internal fractures and mounting external pressure. Since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh defeat, Yerevan has struggled to maintain political stability, social cohesion, and geopolitical balance. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, though electorally resilient, faces domestic unrest and bitter divides among the elite. Externally, Armenia’s reliance on Russia has crumbled as Moscow proved an unreliable security guarantor, prompting a slow pivot toward the West, Iran, and India. Yet Armenia remains economically tethered to Russia and regionally threatened by an emboldened Azerbaijan–Türkiye alliance. Surrounded, landlocked, and vulnerable, Armenia’s strategy now hinges on calibrated multi-alignment. But the risks are high. If Armenia moves too slowly, it remains exposed; if it acts too boldly, it risks retaliation from “allies” turned adversaries.
The full analysis is available here.