Arab Awakening, or a New Regional Order Emerging in the Middle East?

Study by: Erzsébet N. Rózsa.

The demonstrations that have swept through the Arab world since mid-December 2010 have taken everybody by surprise: domestic, regional and external actors alike. The Arab uprising started at a moment when the Middle East is undergoing a profound re-structuring, and thus it may change not only the course, but also the direction and the context of the developments. While the media is speaking of a “domino effect” we claim that the events were not organically and directly interlinked, and although the demonstration effect of the happenings in one country over those in another cannot be underestimated, the Arab countries have gone a long way along the path of “nation-statehood” and have become independent states with specific, sometimes contrasting interests. The 2011 Arab uprisings (Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, Libya, etc.) indicated the beginning of a new chapter in the newly evolving regional order: they seem to have restored and re-confirmed the dignity, the self-esteem and to a certain extent the Arab sense of unity. At the same time, they reflect a new phase of development in the duality of the patrimonial system (in the real sphere) and the institutions (of the virtual sphere), in the course of which the inhabitants, rejecting to remain “subjects” only, may – either temporarily or finally – turn into “citizens”. In this new regional order Egypt has got a new chance: political transformation and the constitutional process offer an opportunity, which may make Egypt the unquestionable political leader of the Arab world again. Thus, the Tahrir Square may – in historical terms – become not only the symbol of the 2011 Arab uprisings, but also that of the rise and re-emerging of the Arab world and Egypt.

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