1. The deadliest attack claimed by the Islamic State on European soil happened in Moscow at the Crocus City Hall
On March 22, 2024, four terrorists attacked the audience of a concert at Crocus City Hall, Moscow. The death toll reached nearly 140 people, while over 180 injured still require medical care. The four attackers were captured on the way to the Ukrainian border and interrogated on-site. According to the attackers, they were hired on Telegram and did it for money. Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) claimed responsibility immediately, but experts and commentators have doubts, stating that ISIS-K may have been involved, but they “are the hands at best, the head is yet to be found.”
2. ISIS claims responsibility with a geolocated video as evidence. FSB and Ukraine blame each other
A key point made by IS propaganda around the world, from Pakistan to Nigeria, is that Moscow is part of the broader coalition of Christian and Western forces engaged in an existential, 1,400-year-old battle against Islam. ISIS-K claims that there is Muslim blood on Russia’s hands from the interventions in Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Syria. The organization is responsible for the failed attack on the synagogue in Kaluga region in early March. With this in mind, the involvement of ISIS-K seems to be logical. Yet FSB officials claim that the group of four Crocus City Hall attackers were heading towards the Ukrainian border because they were promised assistance (a window) in crossing by contacts in Ukraine, thus the involvement of Kyiv with even some Western help is evident for Russia. In Kyiv, on the other hand, some claim that the attack in an FSB operation that aims to give grounds for further escalation of the war and justify the enhancement of the Russian war effort.
3. “Duty to warn” policy in reality: US-Russian relations are at a historic low, and Russia won’t rely on the West’s help in investigating
The US Embassy in Moscow gathered reports of enhanced ISIS militant activity in the country and them with Russia under its “duty to warn” policy. On March 19, however, just days before the attack, Putin called American warnings provocative and said, “These actions resemble outright blackmail and the intention to intimidate and destabilize our society.” This shows deep distrust from the Russian side, being skeptical of the U.S.-provided intelligence and labeling it as fake even in terrorism-related topics, which should be a shared issue even in the time of proxy conflicts. John Kirby claims that the US fulfilled its duty to warn policy and informed the Russian counterpart about the attack, yet the Russian and media Armenian media quotes Kirby on claiming that the US had no information about the preparation of the attack. This statement is not available in Western media outlets. Regarding cooperation on the investigation, Sergey Lavrov stated, “We don’t need any help , as it will clearly be rife with double standards and will most likely be aimed at promoting the theory the West wants, that the Islamic State terrorist group was behind it, and Ukraine had nothing to do with it. We don’t need such help.”
4. Despite all the tensions in the relations with Russia, Western leaders expressed their condolences.
Leaders around the world have expressed their condolences and condemnation of the terror attack that took place on the Crocus City Hall complex near Moscow on Friday night. European leaders turned to their social media platforms to extend their condolences to the Russian people in the wake of the concert attack. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, in her post, strongly condemned the incident and expressed solidarity with the victims and their families. French president Emmanuel Macron, despite his previous fiery statements towards Russia, echoed similar sentiments, denouncing the terrorist attack claimed by the Islamic State and offering support to those affected. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk took a different approach and emphasized his country’s stance against violence and aggression while expressing hope that the incident wouldn’t be exploited for further escalation.
5. Security concerns may now be heightened for work visas and workers from Central Asian countries
The attackers were Tajik nationals and were in Russia with work visas. The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) based in Afghanistan and the surrounding region has adopted a more inclusive recruitment strategy focusing on Central Asia, raising security concerns for the workforce coming from these countries. Certain voices in Moscow suggest to make border and visa inspection more strict after the attack. Such actions may cause frictions in the fragile balance of relations with Central Asia. Labor migration towards Russia from Central Asia is an important element of the economies of the region. Even now, a significant part of the GDPs of the Central Asian countries comes from the money that is being transferred from Russia by Central Asian citizens. This may cause internal debates, too. There are approximately twenty million Muslims living in Russia, and the Muslim population of the North Caucasus shows significant solidarity towards their Central Asian brothers in faith. The leader of Chechnya, Ramsan Kadyrov, already expressed criticism towards the nationalist inclinations of what he calls “fake-patriots” who are playing with the idea of discrimination on the basis of national or religious identities. These kind of internal tensions are the last thing Russia wants.
Written by Sándor Seremet (with the contribution of Péter András Bárány & Ákos Nagy)