1. Portugal’s scandal-plagued ruling Socialists lost their majority in last week’s parliamentary election
The electoral results indicate the worst showing of Portugal’s ruling Socialist Party since 2011, winning only 28 percent of the votes and 78 seats (down from 120) in the 230-member Lisbon parliament. This may not come as a surprise, however, knowing that the 2024 snap election was in fact triggered by a corruption probe against Socialist prime minister António Costa, in power since 2015. While Prime Minister Costa was able to further consolidate his and his party’s power with every election since 2015, eventually managing to govern Portugal without his previous far-left coalition partner Communists and the Left Bloc, this came to an abrupt end in November last year. When the Portuguese Public Prosecution Service started an investigation into corruption, embezzlement and influence-peddling related to green economic projects, a number of people around Costa and in his government were arrested or named a suspect, while the prime minister himself also seemed to be tangentially involved in the probe. Costa promptly resigned, claiming the situation was incompatible with the dignity of his office. The lingering scandal seems to have dented the Socialist Party’s electoral fortune.
2. Portugal’s right-wing parties have won the majority of parliamentary seats for the first time since 2011
Right-wing parties managed to gather the majority of seats for the first time after 2011, with every force on the left either stagnating or declining, bar the still minor green formation LIVRE. Right-wing parties became the biggest in their traditional northern heartlands, and in the very southern Algarve province. Yet the power balance within the Right has changed much compared to 2011. Then, the traditional, albeit oddly named, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and its minor Christian-conservative partner People’s Party dominated the landscape. This year, in contrast, the Democratic Alliance of the Social Democrats, the People’s Party and a tiny monarchist force fared only narrowly better than the ailing Socialists, gathering 28.9 percent and 80 seats, while the main agent in the right-wing surge was the radical force Chega (Enough), with 18.1 percent and 50 seats, up from only 12 two years prior.
3. André Ventura’s pro-sovereigntist Chega party achieved a major breakthrough after focusing on populist issues
The radical right’s breakthrough came in a delicate moment of Portuguese history, as 2024 marks the fiftieth anniversary of the Carnation Revolution, which brought down the right-wing authoritarian Estado Novo regime. Indeed, until the appearance of Chega on the electoral scene in 2019, no relevant radical right force had been present in the post-dictatorship Portuguese political public. Chega itself was founded by former PSD-member, jurist and sports commentator André Ventura in 2019, winning only one seat (for himself) in that year’s parliamentary election, but growing to twelve in 2022. Since then, Ventura and Chega gained prominence for two reasons. First, the party seems to function as a potent vessel for anti-establishment protest voters dissatisfied with the two big parties dominating Portugal’s political life for decades. Second, Ventura brought new topics to the political agenda that had generally been considered taboo. This did include radical proposals, namely, recurring criticisms vis-à-vis the country’s Roma community, advocating chemical castration for sex offenders, and being harshly critical towards immigration and Islam. In return, Ventura and his party have been repeatedly branded as xenophobic, racist and populist by their opponents. Chega’s adoption of the Estado Novo regime’s slogan “God, country, family” (with the addition of “work” at the end) also caused backlash in Portuguese politics, thus far built upon a consensus condemning the pre-1974 political system.
4. In the most fragmented parliament in 50 years, the governmental scenario is not clear
Indeed, the controversies around Chega have cast a shadow of uncertainty around government formation. While Ventura was quick to signal his willingness to form a government with the fellow right-wing Social Democrats, PSD leader Luís Montenegro cut such speculations short, when he vowed not to cooperate with the party deemed too far on the right. While eight electoral alliances gained seats in parliament, rendering the current legislature the most fragmented since democracy was restored, this does not help the Social Democrats: as Montenegro’s electoral bloc is thirty-nine seats short of a majority, besides Chega he could only rely on the rival Socialists for a majority. But whereas new Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos said he would not block Montenegro’s prime ministerial bid, he and his Socialist party are preparing for opposition. This leaves little choice for the PSD: the party will most likely form a minority government—especially as President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (originally from the PSD), with the power of determining who should try to form a government, also pledged to do everything to keep Chega out of power. Accordingly, President Rebelo de Sousa on 21 March nominated Montenegro as prime minister ask asked him to form a minority government. Such governments are not unheard of in Portugal but could be overly feeble and fragile, with Montenegro having to cut separate deals for every parliamentary vote (the most crucial question now is whether he can pass the 2025 budget). This situation could have unforeseeable electoral consequences, and there is a threat that Portugal remains in a parliamentary deadlock for a protracted time period, since per law new elections cannot be called for six months after the previous one.
5. The nationalist Right is on the rise across Europe and set to gain a record number of MEPs in the upcoming European elections
Beside its domestic importance, we can make two observations from the 2024 Portuguese elections that are relevant to the EU’s political scene. First, it seems to fit into a recent trend of radical right formations exploiting the popular dissatisfaction with established parties and soar into electoral heights whereby it is no longer easy (politically and/or arithmetically) to ignore them. We have seen such trends prevailing in Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy, with similar developments expected in France, Germany, Austria and Belgium in the near future. Mainstream parties’ reactions have been either to try to exclude these forces (such as in Portugal or to some extent the Netherlands) or to try to cooperate in an apparent bid to appease and tame them (Italy, Sweden, Spain). Although no clear conclusions can yet be drawn from these strategies, it is clear that the radical right is currently on the rise and set to gain a record number of MEPs in the upcoming European elections in June. While the European Parliament will almost certainly tilt rightwards, much will depend on the determination and ability of these parties—currently sitting in the conservative ECR and radical ID factions—to cooperate with each other, as well as on the center-right EPP’s strategy towards them (exclusion, cooperation or division), to be able to shape EU politics to a greater extent.
Another, albeit probably less vital, question remains the political future of António Costa. Even though he fell out of power at home, he has still not been charged with anything, and many in Europe expect him to take a top job in the EU, most likely the position of European Council President. As Costa’s European Socialists are expected to remain the second biggest group in the European Parliament, they will most likely take part in the institutional “horse trading” of the grand coalition of the EPP, Socialists, liberal Renew (and possibly the Greens). In a scenario whereby the EPP wants to retain the positions of Commission and Parliament President, the wily negotiator Costa could come in handy as the Socialists’ candidate to lead the European Council of EU heads of state and government, especially knowing that he built good relations with many of them during his eight-year tenure as prime minister.
Written by Jad Marcell Harb