1. After seven years in government, the Left lost the elections and the right-wing conservative coalition gained power, winning 58 of 120 seats
On May 8, parliamentary elections were held in North Macedonia, in which the left-wing Social Democratic Union of Macedonia, in power for seven years, failed to retain its position. The coalition led by the right-wing Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) won 58 seats in the 120-seat parliament with 44.54 percent of the vote. The European Front coalition, in which the main force is the Albanian Democratic Union (Macedonian acronym DUI), which was until now in a coalition with the outgoing ruling party, won 19 seats. The Coalition for a European Future, led by the now outgoing Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), won 18 seats. The Albanian opposition bloc VLEN (Value) won 13 seats. VMRO-DPMNE won a big victory but will have to govern in coalition with a more fragmented parliament than before.
2. The Macedonian Right also won a landslide victory in the presidential elections held at the same time as the parliamentary elections
The second round of the presidential elections was held at the same time as the parliamentary elections. The Right overwhelmingly won both rounds of the presidential elections, and the presidential candidate of VMRO-DPMNE, 71-year-old Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, is now the country’s first female president. Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova previously ran in the 2019 presidential election but lost the election to the now outgoing president Pendarovski. A constitutional lawyer who studied in Skopje and Ljubljana, Siljanovska-Davkova has extensive international experience in the development of local government structures, not only in North Macedonia but also in the region. Siljanovska-Davkova has been one of the most vocal opponents of changing the country’s name to North Macedonia. Already in 2019, she wanted to call for a referendum to restore the country’s name. She continued to use the name Macedonia when she was sworn in as president, which was met with disapproval from the EU, Greece and Bulgaria.
3. Disputes over the country’s name could also affect North Macedonia’s EU ambitions
The center-left government has been in power since 2017, and during its seven years in power, it failed to find a definitive solution to the decades-old name dispute with Greece, which is currently regulated by the Prespa Agreement. The compromise reached with Greece unblocked the negotiations with the EU, which were due to start in 2022. This compromise solution, however, has been subject to many domestic political attacks and criticisms, and the name of the country and its use may therefore pose new obstacles to the success of the accession process.
4. The right-wing, conservative government is expected to be more assertive in its response to the EU’s requests to the Macedonians, especially those on the situation of national minorities.
Macedonians in general are particularly sensitive to tensions with Bulgaria. Sofia is calling for Bulgarians living in North Macedonia to be recognized as a minority and included in the constitution. Through EU mediation, the two countries have agreed to a compromise that the Bulgarian minority of around three thousand individuals should be recognized in the North Macedonian constitution alongside Albanians, Turks, Vlahs, Serbs, Roma and Bosniaks. The EU, however, did not consider that the left-wing government did not have the two-thirds majority needed to amend the constitution and could not muster enough support in the Macedonian parliament to amend the constitution. VMRO-DPMNE was able to incorporate Bulgaria’s demands into its campaign with great flair and turn them to the party’s advantage. On this issue, VMRO-DPMNE’s position is that despite meeting EU requests, negotiations are still moving slowly, so this demand will be only met once EU accession becomes a reality.
5. The Hungarian EU presidency, which starts on July 1, will play an important role in correcting the EU’s lack of progress on the integration of the Western Balkans
For Hungary, it is important that the right wing won and that North Macedonia is one of its most important partners, while Hungary is one of the main supporters of the country’s EU integration. The Hungarian EU Presidency can therefore play a major role in accelerating the EU accession process of North Macedonia. The current dispute with Bulgaria is effectively blocking negotiations with the EU but ending it would be politically risky for the government. In this situation, support for a right-wing government in North Macedonia is of high political importance. In addition to the high political risk, it may be in Hungary’s interest to have a second intergovernmental conference between Bulgaria and North Macedonia as soon as possible and to open a new chapter of EU accession negotiations. The Hungarian presidency might be a major step forward on this and other issues related to the region. One of the government’s focal points during the presidency will be to support the effective integration of the Western Balkans into the EU.