1. Anti-migration sentiment and the need to end the war has led to shift to the right in two German states, Thuringia and Saxony
On Sunday, September 1st, state elections were held in the German states of Saxony and Thuringia. In Thuringia, the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) won with 32.8% of the vote, a record-high turnout, while in Saxony it edged out the traditionally dominant Christian Democrats (CDU) with 30.6%, trailing the CDU by only 1.3%. In Thuringia, the CDU secured a solid second place, capturing nearly a quarter of the vote. Third place in both states went to the left-wing BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht), a party formed in January by Sahra Wagenknecht, who left Die Linke to create a party with “a more nationalist sentiment, opposing uncontrolled migration and advocating for peace.”
Unsurprisingly, the BSW’s strong performance came at the expense of Die Linke, which saw a significant decline, finishing fourth in Thuringia and near the bottom in Saxony. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), the party of the Chancellor, achieved a modest 6-7% in both states, while the Greens barely entered the Saxon parliament with similarly poor results. The Liberals failed to meet the threshold in either state.
2. Despite the results, the AfD remains isolated by a “cordon sanitaire”
While elections took place in just two of Germany’s sixteen states, the results have a substantial impact at both the state and federal levels. The AfD’s performance is particularly noteworthy, as the party continues to be subject to a “cordon sanitaire”—referred to in Germany as a “firewall”—due to its radical positions. The CDU’s campaign heavily emphasized that voters should support them to prevent the AfD from gaining power, claiming that only the CDU could stand against the far-right.
In Saxony, CDU Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer is somewhat of an outlier compared to the party’s right-wing and atlantist mainstream. His campaign focused more on strengthening regional identity, particularly the notion that Saxony is dictated to by Brussels, not Berlin. Despite leading Saxony since 1990, the CDU ruled out cooperation with the AfD. However, cooperation with the newly formed BSW remains a possibility. The campaign also highlighted two key aspects of the BSW: it is largely centered around its leader, Sahra Wagenknecht, with other members remaining relatively obscure, and there are internal divisions, particularly concerning migration.
3. The AfD’s strategy resonates in rural areas and among young voters
The results of the two state elections highlight the success of the AfD’s strategy, particularly in rural areas and among younger voters. In Thuringia, those under the age of 30—who have grown up in unified Germany—voted for the AfD in the highest proportion. According to Saxon Prime Minister Kretschmer, the Scholz government’s energy policies and approach to migration are driving German society further to the right. The AfD is working to establish cooperation with municipal representatives from traditional parties, particularly at the local level. This strategy appears to be effective, and the party aims to build on these smaller alliances to become influential at higher levels.
4. Migration and peace were the central themes of the campaign
The primary focus of the campaigns in both state elections was the war in Ukraine, with parties framing their messages around arms shipments and peace negotiations. Attitudes towards the Russian-Ukrainian conflict differ between the eastern and western parts of Germany. In the former GDR states, opposition to arms deliveries is much stronger compared to the western Länder, where there is little dissent on the issue. Even the Greens in the East admitted it was a mistake to support early arms deliveries, and they have since emphasized the importance of diplomacy. The incumbent prime ministers—Kretschmer (CDU) in Saxony, Bodo Ramelow (Die Linke) in Thuringia, and Dietmar Woidke (SPD) in Brandenburg—all advocated for peace talks during their campaigns.
5. Scholz’s coalition suffers another defeat – a shift to the right is expected in the next federal elections
Chancellor Scholz’s governing coalition continues to face a crisis, exacerbated by these latest election results. Despite this, the coalition is expected to survive until the 2025 federal elections, although the weakened FDP has hinted it may exit the alliance due to its poor performance. In Thuringia, it is clear that the communist prime minister Bodo Ramelow will not continue, while in Saxony, Kretschmer will likely remain in power in coalition with other parties.
A key question now is whether Germany will follow the examples of Italy and Austria, where center-right parties have formed coalitions with the far-right to gain power. While this remains unlikely at both the state and federal levels, the AfD’s success in mobilizing previously passive voters signals a significant shift. In the federal elections, parties are expected to respond more actively to this trend, and a rightward shift is anticipated, particularly influenced by the CDU, BSW, and AfD.
Written by Csaba Stefán & Ágnes Vass