1. After Xi’s visit to Paris, the EU-China relationship faces continued challenges, particularly on trade
It is in Beijing’s strategic interest to prevent the European Union from siding with the United States and forming together a united anti-China bloc. This was one of the main motivations for the Chinese president’s visit to France, namely, to prevent a further deterioration of the EU-China relationship. The meeting in Paris, which was also attended by Ursula von der Leyen, was not anticipated to bring any a breakthrough on the most important issues affecting bilateral relations, thus the meeting was more about amplifying messages and clarifying positions rather than seeking a compromise. The EU’s trade deficit and the access of European firms to the Chinese market, and the EU’s desire for protection against the influx of Chinese goods, are issues that will continue to weigh on relations between Brussels and Beijing in the future. The Chinese president’s talks in France have failed to dispel the threat of a trade conflict between the EU and China, which remains a key challenge for the coming period.
2. President Macron’s “cognac diplomacy” results in minor bilateral benefits, while bolstering his image in the developing world
After the meeting in the Pyrenees mountains, President Macron’s only tangible success was that China is not yet imposing a protective tariff on French cognac imports. To achieve this, the French head of state also presented his Chinese counterpart with a gift of the famous French spirit. The fact that controversial issues such as the unbalanced trade relationship or the war in Ukraine were even on the agenda, can perhaps also be seen as an achievement, as such hot topics were avoided during their last meeting in Beijing in 2023. In addition, the French president was keen to make clear that his country has no intention of disengaging from China. In addition, he has certainly succeeded in further strengthening his personal relationship with Xi Jinping, which is also important for the French president since he wants to position his country as an important partner of the major powers in the developing world. Through the visit, the Chinese president also wanted to show his support for Macron’s ambition for strategic autonomy for the European Union, which Beijing hopes will lead the EU to move away from the United States and turn towards other partners, including China. Overall, instead of a substantial progress, the Chinese president’s visit to France has rather demonstrated the complexity of the relationship between the two countries, which will provide room for both conflict and cooperation in the future.
3. The Belgrade visit deepened Serbian-Chinese ties with 28 agreements signed, including on free trade
The date of Chinese president Xi Jinping’s visit to Serbia was symbolic: twenty-five years ago, on 7 May 1999, NATO air strikes in Belgrade hit the Chinese embassy building (accidentally) with several bombs, killing three embassy staff. Besides the timing of the visit, the message is also symbolic: the alternative to the “pro-war West” is the peaceful East, i.e. China, and Beijing will always stand by its allies, including Serbia. At the press conference in Belgrade, President Xi said that “the Chinese people value peace, but will never allow a repeat of historical tragedies.” Efforts to deepen Belgrade-Beijing relations are also reflected in the fact that during the visit twenty-eight cooperation and memorandum of understanding agreements were signed, including a free trade agreement, which is very much at odds with Serbia’s EU integration aspirations. Serbia’s swing policy is itself a foreign policy balancing between the West and the East, but at the same time, the rise of Chinese economic and political influence in the country should not be overlooked. In the last three years, China has been the largest investor in Serbia and the country’s second largest foreign trade partner.
4. The Hungarian-Chinese partnership has been strengthened in the field of financial, investment and technological cooperation
A specific outcome of President Xi Jinping’s visit to Hungary is the joint declaration by the two countries announcing an upgrade in their relationship from a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” to an “All-Weather Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for the New Era.” This new level is the second highest in the loose hierarchy of Chinese partnership relations, and it places Hungary among a select group of countries considered China’s most friendly and cooperative partners. This level allows for more direct and frequent contact between the top leaders at a political level. Moreover, it serves as a guideline for Chinese companies and lower-level organizations, including local governments, indicating that their central government explicitly supports cooperation with such high-level partners.
The visit resulted in the signing of eighteen Memorandums of Understanding and similar documents. These documents are not yet concrete agreements but rather signal the intent to collaborate on various issues or to establish an institutional platform for such cooperation. Some of these agreements concern the development of frameworks for financial, investment, and technological cooperation between the relevant ministries, while others expand Hungarian export opportunities to China, with no less than five documents concerning cooperation on the field of mass media.
5. International media coverage on Xi’s visit in Budapest remains mostly neutral, revolving around the benefits and costs of de-risking
Xi Jinping’s visit in Budapest attracted a particular attention of the national and international press. Published articles and analyses highlighted that, unlike other EU Member States, Hungary has become an important trade and investment partner for China. The global integration of the Hungarian automotive industry, which has become a key factor in the transition to electric vehicles in Europe, has also been widely highlighted. The strategic focus of Hungarian foreign policy, which, unlike the EU member states pursuing a de-risking policy, continues to build relations with China, was also reflected in the media coverage. Reports in the Chinese press emphasize the new level of relations between the two countries, and mention the friendly welcome that Xi Jinping received in Budapest. They quote the Chinese president as saying that relations between Hungary and China have never been so harmonious and that they have stood the test of the changing international environment. The majority of Western media reported on the Chinese president’s visit to Budapest in a neutral tone, listing the main facts of the event. At the same time, several Western and Asian reporters concluded that Xi’s European tour exposed Europe’s persisting divisions, as tough questions were on the table in France while harmony prevailed in Belgrade and Budapest.
Written by Viktor Buzna, Péter Goreczky, Gergely Salát & Cintia Viola