On Saturday, January 13, Taiwan held presidential and parliamentary elections. As predicted, the current vice president, William Lai, won the presidential election as a representative of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a nationalist party favoring greater independence from Beijing and closer ties with Western powers. The DPP secured 40 percent of the valid votes, while the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) received 33.5 percent, and the third party, the Taiwan People Party (TPP), obtained 26.5 percent, upsetting the traditional balance between the nationalist DPP and the less hawkish KMT.
Although the DPP won the presidential election, it couldn’t maintain its majority in the Taiwanese parliament, the Legislative Yuan. In short, the politics of the Taiwanese parliament is now more mixed due to the strong presence of a third party, and so in spite of the DPP’s nationalist stance, there is no strong parliamentary mandate. The result will likely perpetuate the status quo, in which China and the United States both seek influence while avoiding direct conflict. In the legislative elections held concurrently with the presidential election, out of the 113 seats, 52 went to the KMT, 51 to the DPP, 8 to the TPP and 2 to independents. Since the DPP won the presidential position while the majority of seats in the legislative body went to the KMT, the ruling party will be forced into a minority government in the next term.
Beijing can consider this result a partial success since the mixed composition of the legislature provides more opportunities to influence Taiwan’s foreign policy. To achieve this result, Beijing is expected to further develop interparty relationships with the KMT and TPP. Beijing is likely to allocate significant resources, with efforts by the CPC to build relationships, plus potential visits by Taiwanese opposition politicians.
Wang Yi, China’s minister of foreign affairs, addressed the election results during a press conference held in Cairo, stating that the election results would “not change the prevailing consensus,” namely that most countries observe the one China policy. While in Egypt, Wang proposed the creation of the Palestinian State and addressed the crisis in Gaza. Essentially, parallel to the Taiwanese elections, Beijing entered the sphere of American interests, subtly sending a message to Washington. Following this, there was news that Nauru in the South Pacific would sever official ties with Taiwan and establish diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China. This reduces the number of states officially recognizing Taiwan to twelve, a process in which Beijing has been successfully engaging in recent years.
President Joe Biden congratulated the DPP on its presidential victory but emphasized that Washington does not support Taiwan’s independence. This statement can be seen as a further development in the current American viewpoint since, in a previous statement, Biden promised that the United States would be willing to defend the island with force in case of a Chinese attack. Biden’s reaction can be interpreted as another turn in its so-called strategic ambiguity on the Taiwan issue, and indeed an unofficial American visit was made to the island the day after the elections.
From the Hungarian perspective, a peaceful navigation of the growing rivalry between the United States and China is essential. Recent developments in the Taiwan issue have been mostly favorable, which is in turn good news for Hungary. Based on the reactions from the United States and China, the assessments that the parties reached some agreement during the APEC summit held in San Francisco in November of last year proved to be accurate. Furthermore, the election results represent an acceptable minimum for both major powers: the DPP’s success in the presidential election is favorable for the United States, and the hung parliament reassures China’s positions in Taiwanese politics. The Hungarian government sees international connectivity as a fundamental condition for peace, which is endangered by tensions in the Taiwan Strait. The election results could continue to bolster a favorable situation, especially if all the involved parties see it as an opportunity.