1. Right-wing parties were strengthened in the European Parliament elections, but EPP leaders continued to exclude right-wing parties from the principal coalition
In the European Parliament elections held in the first half of June, the European People’s Party remained the strongest group, reversing a fifteen-year trend of winning fewer MEPs in each election. In the same way, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) have increased their representation in the EP. The third major right-wing factor was Identity and Democracy (ID), which won 58 seats. The elections showed that the parties to the right of the EPP gained strength within the EP. The EPP, however, still intends to continue working with the liberal parties, not ruling out working with the ECR on a case-by-case basis, while it has completely rejected working with ID. In the meantime, however, it has struck a deal with the Liberals for the top jobs, leaving out the Italian prime minister Georgia Meloni, who led the reformists and has emerged as one of the most influential European politicians since the elections. Under the deal, Ursula von der Leyen will remain president of the European Commission, Portuguese socialist António Costa has been nominated to head the European Council, while the Liberal Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas will be nominated for the post of High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Commenting on the nominations, Matteo Salvini, leader of the right-wing Lega party, said it was a European coup d’état, as a very narrow group of six people had nominated candidates for the post. However, these developments did not reflect the strengthening of sovereigntist forces and made it difficult to create a strong right-wing faction, even though right-wing or sovereign parties won the EP elections in most countries at the national level.
2. A new fault line has emerged in European politics, contrasting sovereigntist political parties with political parties working for the creation of a united European state
Within European politics, it is now clear that the real political fault line is no longer between the Left and the Right, nor between the conservative and the liberal political parties, but between those who support the idea of a Europe of strong nations and those who would allow member states far fewer powers. This represents a major political shift at the European level and, as we will see in the coming weeks and months of elections, at the national level. So-called sovereigntist political parties have gained strength in several European countries, winning EP elections in most places from Paris to Prague. So, a strong center of opinion has emerged within the EU, to the right of the EPP, whose representation has not been adequately made visible by the existing party factions.
3. Representing the sovereigntist position, the Patriots for Europe party family has been created under the leadership of Hungary
Several right-wing parties from central and western Europe left their former European party families as a result of the political developments following the election results. Some right-wing political parties have not previously been involved in European Parliament politics but have not been able to identify with the existing party families. In the EP elections, migration, the green transition, and the situation in Ukraine were the three main themes that dominated the campaign in almost all member states. On these issues, a significant proportion of voters cast their ballot for a right-wing party, indicating their disagreement with the current direction of travel. Taking this reality into account, the Patriots for Europe initiative was launched on the initiative of the Hungarian government parties, with the participation of the Austrian Freedom Party and the ANO party led by former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš.
4. Patriots for Europe has already grown into the third strongest party family in the EP
It is possible that after the EP’s inaugural meeting, scheduled for 16 July, there will still be several new parties, as MEPs can move to another group within the EP at any time. Currently, the founding parties Fidesz and KDNP have 11 MEPs in the group, ANO 7 and FPÖ 6. The largest force is represented by the French National Rally with 30 MEPs who have moved from the ID group to the Patriots. They are also the group’s president, Jordan Bardella. The Italian League with 8 MPs, the Dutch Party for Freedom with 6, the Belgian Flemish Interest with 3, the Portuguese Chega! with 2, and the Danish People’s Party with 1 MP. From the ECR, the Spanish VOX transferred 6 MEPs to the Patriots. The formerly independent Latvia has also transferred to the Patriots with 1 from the First, 1 from the Greek Voice of Reason, and 2 from the Czech Promise and Motorists. So now the Patriots for Europe group has 84 MEPs from 12 countries. It is expected that there will be close cooperation between the ECR and the Patriots within the EP, as the two groups agree on most issues, with differences of emphasis in most cases. The most likely fault line between them would be the approach to the war and Ukraine.
5. The new right-wing alliance of the Patriots for Europe aims to reorient EU policy toward serving a Europe of strong nations
European politics, according to the new party family, needs major changes, which will be shaped by the will of the electorate. There are three central areas for change: migration, war, and the green transition. The current European rules on migration are not working and are generating several social problems (see the housing crisis in Ireland). The solution would be decisive EU action, including the launch of programs to support the conflict regions from which the migration flows originate. As regards the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is clear that supporting Ukraine with arms will not bring a solution—a ceasefire is needed, and peace talks should be launched. Recent experience has shown that the green transition has been misguided. Instead of providing solutions, it is imposing new burdens on sensitive economic sectors such as industry and agriculture. This weakens the EU’s competitiveness and increases public dissatisfaction. However, the Patriots’ aim is not only to address these medium-term problems. In the longer term, the aim is to create a strong counter-pole within the EP that will balance the EPP and liberal, left-wing aspirations. In the longer term, therefore, it could be the Patriots that could become a serious pole against the EPP, which has become strongly centrist in the meantime, as well as against the socialist and liberal party families.