1. The global hegemony of the U.S. is declining, as is the global economic weight of the developed countries
In recent decades, the global hegemonic role of the United States has ensured that the international system and its institutions serve the interests of developed economies. Accordingly, the evolution of the relationship between the developed and developing states—in formerly popular terms, the “Global North” and “Global South”—has been inseparable from the evolution of the U.S. hegemonic position in the world. Yet in terms of indicators of hard and soft power, the hegemonic role of the United States has been declining overall since the end of the Cold War, as has the dominance of the developed countries in the world economy. The relative decline in the power of the United States, which maintains the international order in the interests of developed countries, does not, however, mean that the U.S. is backsliding as such, only that its leadership in the international system is slowly eroding. At the same time, the Global South, which is growing ever more interested in reforming the world order, is an obvious platform for alliance-building for those great and middle powers that are increasingly reluctant to accept U.S. hegemony.
2. The BRICS would build an alternative world order only if international institutions are not reformed
In light of last year’s BRICS summit in Johannesburg, as well as the BRICS enlargement on 1 January 2024, it has become clear that the group is looking to connect with countries considered to be part of the Global South in order to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the U.S.-dominated international system. The agenda or road map published in the final document of the 2023 summit, on the basis of which the member states of the bloc envisage reforming the current world order, came close to an ultimatum given to the developed countries. In any case, the message was clear: either the developed countries would be willing to reshape the institutions of the international system, or the developing world would start building an alternative order. In any case, for now the BRICS countries envisage reforming existing institutions as a first step toward advancing their interests.
3. Developed countries need to build scenarios for real change, without necessarily abandoning the foundations of the Western-style political order
Currently there is no monolithic BRICS bloc opposing the developed world—but it could emerge if Western politicians react to its growth by alienating the largest countries of the Global South. In other words, a repeated rejection of the developed world’s demands for a transformation of global governance would be the least reasonable course of action. At the same time, maintaining international rules and norms has traditionally been a more cost-effective solution than organizing a new order. Moreover, the U.S. remains a global power capable of projecting force, and will continue to be a dominant player in international relations for decades to come. Together, these two factors offer an opportunity for developed countries not to negotiate with developing countries on global governance reform from a defensive position, but to take a tactical and proactive approach to reform.
4. Trade relations can be a good base for strengthening cooperation in other areas
At the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting this January in Davos, there was a sense of pessimism among developing countries about cooperation with the developed world. Clearly, there are and will be differences between developed and developing countries, and the North-South divide is not going to disappear from the vocabulary of international politics any time soon. In particular, following the enlargement of BRICS, there is a risk that the strategic confrontation between the U.S. and China will also have an impact on the evolution of relations between the developed and developing world. At the same time, economic necessity and interdependence are increasingly making more frequent interaction essential and creating opportunities for closer cooperation. Areas where cooperation is working despite the North-South fault line provide a good basis for exploring new opportunities for cooperation and building trust. One such area could be trade, where a significant number of developed and developing countries continue to look for opportunities to conclude new free trade agreements with each other.
5. Due to its special position, Hungary could facilitate dialogue and cooperation between developed and developing countries
Hungary is embedded in the political and economic structures linked to the developed “Nordic” countries and is also classified by the World Bank as a “high-income” country. At the same time, Hungary has a centuries-old legacy of moving away from the semi-periphery and catching up with the more developed economies of the continent. In other words, Hungary is generally ranked as a part of the developed world, while itself seeking ways of catching up to higher levels of development. This is why Hungary could be able to evaluate the opportunities for cooperation between developed and developing countries in a rational manner, free from the interests of the great powers, and to formulate credible messages in support of dialogue.
Written by Péter Goreczky