On the 18th of August, 2021, the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (IFAT) organised an online roundtable discussion focusing on the situation in Afghanistan after the American withdrawal and the Taliban’s takeover. Three experts participated in the discussion – Tamás Péter Baranyi (Deputy Director for Strategy of IFAT), Virág Novák-Varró (doctoral candidate at the University of Public Service), and Péter Wagner (senior research fellow of IFAT, senior lecturer of the Károli Gáspár University of the Reformed Church in Hungary). The event was moderated by Máté Szalai.
The panelists agreed that the chaos prevailing in Afghanistan can be attributed to the mistakes made during the two decade-long intervention. On the strategic level, the withdrawal of American troops was an understandable decision given the lack of clear goals and the inability to achieve meaningful results in countering the Taliban. Nonetheless, the implementation of the withdrawal suffered from several mistakes, including logistical and political ones. Despite the substantial American presence on the ground, the leadership probably either received inaccurate information or lacked the motivation to create the necessary circumstances needed for safe evacuation. It seems that getting the withdrawal done as soon as possible was a stronger incentive.
The three experts agreed that there are numerous uncertainties regarding the future of Afghanistan, however, they expressed slightly different views on the anticipated governance style of the Taliban. The major question determining the future of the country is whether the current moderate tone projected by the Taliban since taking over Kabul is temporary or not; and if so, how long does it last. It is possible that soon the movement will revert to the more radical ruling of the 1990s. Moreover, the nature of relations between the Taliban and al-Qaeda, as well as the leverage of the Jihadi movement in the new Afghan state is still hard to predict. Although the popularity of the new leadership is difficult to measure, the lack of prominent obstacles in the campaign of the last weeks reflects the population’s consent to the group’s rule. In comparison, the difference vis-á-vis the previous Afghan regime is striking, as it was instantly abandoned by its supporters.
This crisis has widespread international ramifications. The withdrawal and the lack of willingness for deeper coordination with allies on the American side led to a surprisingly heated debate in NATO, especially since the consequences of the Afghan crisis will directly affect the security of Europe. Albeit the strengthening of the Taliban poses a threat to both Russia and China, they chose to follow a cautious path and they will probably seek to establish some sort of relationship with the new Afghan leadership. The panelists agreed that the developments in Afghanistan will take a toll on the reputation of the United States, however, the severity of the debacle is yet to be seen.
The full recording can accessed at the link below or on our YouTube-channel!
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