Ethnic conflict on British streets was inevitable

Op-Ed by Philip Pilkington

Over the past week the United Kingdom has been engulfed in riots. This is not the first time in recent years that the country has experienced riots. In August of 2011, riots spread from London to other cities in response to the police killing of Mark Duggan, a black British man who the police suspected of possessing a handgun. This time, however, the riots were sparked by the stabbing of three small white children by the 17-year-old son of Rwandan immigrants which was done seemingly without any rational motivation.

The change in the racial dynamics of the riots is extremely important to understand to grasp their significance. The 2011 riots were reminiscent of similar American anti-police riots and revolved around questions of whether police were too harsh on ethnic minority communities. While these sorts of riots can be enormously disruptive, they can be addressed at a public policy level by reevaluating how police interact with minority communities.

This is not the case with the riots in Britain that we see today. Those partaking in the riots – and in protests – are angry at the level of immigration in Britain today. They are people who believe that they are in the land of their historic ancestors and are having these lands taken away from them by newcomers. They associate these new arrivals with increases in crime, particularly violent crime, and a deterioration in social trust and the “British way of life”.

In response to this, counterriots have sprung up. Immigrants and their children have formed together to defend their communities, often around local mosques. In recent days, there have been clashes between the two groups. Interestingly, the immigrants and their children have been seen waving Palestinian flags as they clash with the natives, suggesting that the situation may become even worse if there is further conflict in the Middle East.

Britain today has by far the highest number of immigrants in its history. Immigrants now make up over 15% of the British population. This compares to just over 12% when the 2011 riots broke out, just over 6% 20 years before that in 1991, and only 4% in 1951. The composition of the immigrants has also changed drastically. After the Second World War, most immigrants in Britain were from Ireland and were culturally very similar. In the early-2000s, this was supplemented by immigrants from Poland and Central and Eastern Europe. Today many come from Africa and the Middle East.

Increasingly, Britain’s entire economic model is based on enormous numbers of immigrants arriving to the country. This is because Britain has a severe underlying demographic crisis. The last time Britain had replacement level birth rates was in 1972. Since 1972, Britain has had similar birth rates to Hungary. Britain’s average birth rate was 1.78 and Hungary’s was 1.63. But Britain’s birth rate has been propped up by higher birth rates among immigrants than among the native population.

There are only two ways to generate economic growth in the long run: increase your population or increase the economic productivity of your population. Unlike in Hungary where productivity has been booming, British productivity has been stagnant since 2008. This has meant that the country is totally reliant on population growth for its economic growth. Since the domestic population are not having children, this has meant increasing rates of immigration.

In 2022, immigration to the country reached a record high of 1.23 million people and remained at 1.22 million people. This means that today 3.7% of the population in Britain has arrived in the last two years. Put differently, if you walk down a street in Britain one in thirty people that you see will be new arrivals. It is not surprising that this is leading to extreme levels of social upheaval and unrest.

The future looks even worse for Britain. In a recent study my co-author, the British demographer Paul Morland and I modelled what it will look like if Britain continues its high immigration policy to keep its economy stable. We found that if Britain continues its present path, over 50% of the population would be immigrants by 2080. To be clear, we found that over half the population would be non-native born people; if we counted their children the number would be far higher. We noted in the study, undertaken last year that this could result in widespread social instability. It looks like we were correct.

The problem with the current British riots is that there is no real solution to the problem. It is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to deport immigrants from Britain once they arrive. So, when the native population riots and protests, there is nothing that the authorities can do about the issue. Add to this the fact that the government is committed to maintaining economic growth at all costs and it seems unlikely that the authorities will even restrict the flow of new immigrants to Britain. The situation will only get worse in the coming years.

The response of the British government seems like it will be to criminalise dissent on the issue. The government has already labelled rioters and protestors ‘far right’ and no doubt this term will soon be used to describe anyone who dissents on immigration. The British state will then use censorship and its police powers to suppress the domestic population. For reference, a public poll in Britain showed that 52% of people thought that immigration was too high so this will mean criminalising the opinions of most of the country. Britain is quickly moving toward an authoritarian police state.

Britain looks set to be a country mired in ethnic conflict. The authorities will try to manage this by increasing police powers and turning the country increasingly authoritarian. But it seems likely that the ethnic conflict will continue regardless. Hungary must take a lesson from the collapse of the British social fabric: once mass immigration is allowed to occur there is no way back and the only workable long-term solution is to raise domestic birth rates.

Cover: Getty Images